NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Excitement	3.9 [1012]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (IND): +14.8%
Indiana Pacers	124		Comeback	1.4 [971]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -7.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Richard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	86%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Craig Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	8	78%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	9	70%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Snyder	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.00	0.08	9	79%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Marko Jaric	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.04	6	85%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	57%	0.08	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	0.01	0.08	17	56%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	0.04	11	48%	-0.02	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.22	-0.00	0.07	13	86%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	23	62%	0.12	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.01	-0.03	16	56%	0.11	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.02
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	8	45%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	7	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	5	43%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.6	27.9	15.8	26.0	1.6	32.2	129.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +23.1%

IND +2.4%

IND +12.4%

IND +12.8%

MIN -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	IND	NBA	MIN	IND	NBA
this game	13.8	16.1	15.4	117.7	127.8	105.7
season	15.9	13.8		102.2	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.6	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.4	14.9	13.1	13.7	13.8
IND	12.4	14.5	18.7	19.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	36	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-16	21	14.0	13.6	0.41	17.1	15.5	1.60
Ryan Gomes	53	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-8	5	13.5	14.1	-0.54	15.0	17.4	-2.44
Kirk Snyder	58	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-5	-1	13.5	14.1	-0.60	15.7	16.6	-0.93
Corey Brewer	38	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-6	1	14.1	13.5	0.60	16.6	15.7	0.93
Randy Foye	85	84	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-9	7	13.0	20.0	-7.04	15.8	17.5	-1.62
Marko Jaric	61	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-11	0	-11	14.8	11.9	2.92	15.8	16.6	-0.78
Rashad McCants	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	-2	-7	13.8	13.7	0.15	16.8	15.4	1.45
Craig Smith	43	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	14.1	13.5	0.54	17.4	15.0	2.44
Al Jefferson	60	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	5	-21	13.6	14.0	-0.41	15.5	17.1	-1.60

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	55	54	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.02	18	-7	25	15.8	16.4	-0.60	14.0	13.5	0.52
Mike Dunleavy	84	83	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.05	16	-5	21	15.8	17.7	-1.88	13.6	15.1	-1.51
Troy Murphy	82	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-4	19	15.8	17.7	-1.90	13.7	14.3	-0.67
David Harrison	52	52	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	2	7	16.2	15.9	0.28	14.2	13.2	1.05
Marquis Daniels	31	29	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	0	11	15.5	16.3	-0.80	14.4	13.5	0.97
Danny Granger	79	80	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	16	-21	16.5	13.9	2.60	13.7	13.9	-0.20
Jeff Foster	60	59	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.16	-2	13	-15	16.3	15.6	0.76	13.5	14.2	-0.72
Ronald Murray	42	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	18	-25	16.4	15.8	0.60	13.5	14.0	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
MIL 85, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
MIL 74, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%