NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	2.5 [1255]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +6.5%
Chicago Bulls	80		Comeback	1.8 [742]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -8.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	0.00	0.08	14	69%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	-0.00	-0.05	18	50%	0.08	2	-0.04	10	70%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	6	83%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	11	52%	0.04	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	8	30%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	12	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	8	53%	0.04	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Demetris Nichols	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	4	44%	0.00	1	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	3	0%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	12	38%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	16	35%	-0.06	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	0.07	13	56%	-0.02	4	-0.06	6	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	28.2	15.7	29.2	2.3	26.6	128.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +21.3%

SAS +6.9%

SAS +15.3%

SAS +5.3%

SAS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.9	14.3	15.4	109.7	87.9	105.7
season	16.5	15.0		104.7	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.3		105.4	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	18.0	15.0	19.7	16.9
CHI	14.4	17.1	13.2	13.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	51	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.16	20	2	18	15.7	18.4	-2.64	14.2	14.5	-0.21
Manu Ginobili	52	50	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	4	14	16.6	17.4	-0.81	14.5	14.1	0.44
Tony Parker	60	59	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.16	19	3	16	15.4	19.6	-4.19	14.3	14.4	-0.10
Robert Horry	23	23	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.17	17	5	12	14.5	17.7	-3.26	16.9	13.5	3.44
Ime Udoka	51	50	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	12	-2	17.3	16.5	0.79	14.2	14.5	-0.27
Fabricio Oberto	42	42	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.08	8	14	-6	17.1	16.8	0.33	14.6	14.1	0.43
Michael Finley	43	42	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	16	-10	16.4	17.4	-0.96	14.0	14.6	-0.63
Bruce Bowen	39	38	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.22	12	10	2	17.4	16.6	0.86	13.2	15.2	-1.94
Jacque Vaughn	33	32	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	19	-16	19.6	15.4	4.19	14.4	14.3	0.10
Kurt Thomas	39	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	19	-16	18.5	15.8	2.76	14.4	14.3	0.10
Matt Bonner	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	25	-28	18.5	16.6	1.89	13.9	14.4	-0.49
Damon Stoudamire	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	25	-28	18.5	16.6	1.89	13.9	14.4	-0.49

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Demetris Nichols	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-24	26	14.0	14.4	-0.36	20.3	16.7	3.62
Aaron Gray	13	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-20	18	14.9	14.2	0.68	18.7	16.6	2.06
Tyrus Thomas	27	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-20	18	15.0	14.1	0.88	16.3	17.2	-0.91
Andres Nocioni	43	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-17	12	13.9	14.7	-0.78	17.9	16.0	1.93
Thabo Sefolosha	56	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-15	8	14.3	14.4	-0.14	16.9	16.9	-0.01
Luol Deng	68	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.16	-15	-7	-8	13.9	15.8	-1.93	16.5	18.0	-1.48
Ben Gordon	74	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	-7	-8	14.5	13.8	0.71	16.8	17.4	-0.51
Drew Gooden	67	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.18	-18	-4	-14	14.0	15.3	-1.35	16.2	18.8	-2.55
Joakim Noah	46	46	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.35	-26	4	-30	15.3	13.3	2.04	17.2	16.7	0.47
Larry Hughes	55	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.23	-22	0	-22	14.3	14.4	-0.03	16.9	17.1	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 133, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
SAC 128, CLE 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DAL 116, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%