NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	54		Excitement	1.4 [1316]		MVP	Anthony Parker (TOR): +4.5%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	1.1 [1312]		LVP	Mark Blount (MIA): -7.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	12	50%	0.06	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	8	30%	-0.04	3	0.00	4	100%	-0.00
Earl Barron	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.14	0.00	-0.09	10	14%	-0.05	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.15	0.00	-0.09	19	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	14	44%	-0.02	5	-0.04	4	100%	-0.00
Mark Blount	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	0.00	0.07	13	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.03	10	70%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	11	61%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	64%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	9	67%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	5	50%	0.01	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	5	90%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	0.00	0.07	5	83%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	10	33%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	24.4	16.5	25.2	2.7	25.3	118.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +34.5%

TOR +4.6%

TOR +10.7%

MIA -0.2%

TOR +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	18.9	15.1	15.4	64.3	111.6	105.7
season	16.0	15.6		99.0	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.6	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.6	17.1	19.4	19.5	18.9
TOR	15.6	14.2	16.6	14.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	53	57	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.35	-19	-23	4	18.2	20.0	-1.76	15.2	14.8	0.47
Joel Anthony	49	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.44	-24	-18	-6	18.7	19.1	-0.34	14.3	16.1	-1.74
Mark Blount	50	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.41	-25	-17	-8	18.3	19.7	-1.48	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Bobby Jones	61	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.43	-27	-15	-12	19.5	17.2	2.32	14.6	16.4	-1.81
Earl Barron	59	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.56	-32	-10	-22	19.6	17.2	2.36	15.1	14.9	0.27
Ricky Davis	64	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.73	-41	-1	-40	18.7	19.3	-0.58	16.0	12.7	3.30
Chris Quinn	84	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.73	-42	0	-42	18.9	0.0	18.86	15.1	0.0	15.07

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	55	54	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.49	30	12	18	15.3	14.7	0.51	18.3	19.9	-1.67
Anthony Parker	48	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.44	27	15	12	16.6	13.2	3.43	18.8	18.9	-0.06
Andrea Bargnani	48	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.47	28	14	14	16.6	13.2	3.43	18.8	18.9	-0.06
Jamario Moon	48	47	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.43	26	16	10	15.9	14.1	1.78	19.1	18.6	0.52
Jose Calderon	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.46	27	15	12	16.5	13.6	2.93	18.9	18.8	0.11
Chris Bosh	39	39	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.33	20	22	-2	14.8	15.3	-0.41	19.7	18.1	1.61
T.J. Ford	42	40	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.27	15	27	-12	13.6	16.5	-2.93	18.8	18.9	-0.11
Jason Kapono	41	40	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.28	15	27	-12	13.4	16.6	-3.21	18.8	18.9	-0.11
Carlos Delfino	13	13	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.06	7	35	-28	13.5	15.3	-1.80	17.2	19.2	-1.92
Joey Graham	22	21	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.26	9	33	-24	14.1	15.4	-1.32	19.5	18.6	0.89
Kris Humphries	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	39	-36	12.6	15.6	-2.99	18.9	18.9	-0.00
Maceo Baston	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	39	-36	12.6	15.6	-2.99	18.9	18.9	-0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 83, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.2%
LAL 84, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
MIL 79, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%