NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	95		Excitement	4.4 [918]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +16.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	103		Comeback	1.0 [1150]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (IND): -9.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.00	0.03	12	79%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.09	0.00	0.06	11	74%	0.06	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	14	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.02	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Stephen Graham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	10	30%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	12	46%	-0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.17	0.04	0.04	24	63%	0.21	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.03
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	70%	0.07	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	7	21%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.07	13	44%	0.05	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	14	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	22%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	31.5	15.7	25.2	2.6	33.2	135.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +5.1%

CLE +7.1%

CLE +25.1%

CLE +8.0%

CLE +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CLE	NBA	IND	CLE	NBA
this game	13.2	18.0	15.4	104.4	110.8	105.7
season	13.8	16.4		104.5	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.2		104.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.8	11.1	14.2	13.5	13.2
CLE	13.9	22.1	18.3	18.6	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Diogu	22	23	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.23	9	-17	26	14.9	12.7	2.18	18.1	18.0	0.12
Stephen Graham	12	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-11	14	12.8	13.3	-0.43	19.2	17.8	1.38
Marquis Daniels	45	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.31	7	-15	22	13.3	13.1	0.20	20.5	15.8	4.75
Ronald Murray	36	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-9	10	14.9	12.1	2.83	19.1	17.3	1.74
Travis Diener	55	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	1	-10	12.1	14.9	-2.83	17.3	19.1	-1.74
Danny Granger	61	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	2	-12	13.5	12.5	1.01	16.9	20.6	-3.75
Jeff Foster	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	7	-22	12.9	14.0	-1.05	17.5	19.2	-1.69
Troy Murphy	80	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	3	-14	12.9	15.3	-2.35	18.5	14.4	4.08
Mike Dunleavy	79	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	7	-22	13.0	14.4	-1.39	17.4	22.7	-5.31

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	79	75	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.18	15	-7	22	16.9	24.3	-7.35	13.1	13.7	-0.66
Anderson Varejao	75	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-7	22	17.6	19.9	-2.29	13.0	13.9	-0.85
Delonte West	77	75	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-4	16	17.1	22.6	-5.46	13.3	12.7	0.63
Ben Wallace	47	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	-8	24	17.7	18.4	-0.78	13.4	13.0	0.40
Devin Brown	62	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-5	18	17.7	18.8	-1.10	13.1	13.5	-0.37
Joe Smith	48	46	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.48	-13	21	-34	19.5	16.5	3.05	13.2	13.2	-0.07
Wally Szczerbiak	52	50	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.40	-11	19	-30	20.1	15.4	4.66	13.0	13.4	-0.42
Damon Jones	25	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.19	-7	15	-22	20.3	17.2	3.06	14.0	12.9	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.83,0.83,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.86,0.99,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 80, LAL 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	95.5%
UTA 99, LAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	95.5%
CHI 89, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	95.5%