NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	134		Excitement	3.3 [1132]		MVP	Al Harrington (GSW): +19.6%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.2 [1097]		LVP	Ricky Davis (MIA): -15.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.19	0.03	0.02	8	106%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.00	0.03	15	71%	0.13	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	9	68%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.03	4	70%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	7	57%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.04	9	52%	-0.01	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.00	0.06	14	53%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	14	71%	0.15	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	-0.05	14	57%	0.07	3	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	17	54%	0.07	4	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	10	90%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.01	0.01	13	33%	-0.11	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	29.6	16.4	26.7	2.0	27.3	128.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +33.9%

MIA -1.2%

GSW +11.5%

GSW +6.3%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	12.8	15.3	15.4	130.1	97.1	105.7
season	13.5	16.0		109.8	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.1		108.3	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.0	12.4	11.2	13.4	12.8
MIA	13.7	18.4	16.5	13.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	58	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.17	22	13	9	13.1	12.4	0.71	16.1	14.4	1.67
Stephen Jackson	66	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.33	25	10	15	12.5	13.2	-0.64	15.9	14.2	1.72
CJ Watson	54	54	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.33	23	12	11	12.8	12.7	0.12	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Mickael Pietrus	68	68	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.32	22	13	9	12.9	12.5	0.35	15.7	14.6	1.07
Monta Ellis	64	63	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.20	18	17	1	12.5	13.2	-0.61	15.8	14.6	1.16
Andris Biedrins	38	36	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	27	-19	13.3	12.5	0.77	16.5	14.7	1.85
Al Harrington	41	42	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.28	17	18	-1	12.5	13.0	-0.48	15.5	15.2	0.20
Kelenna Azubuike	43	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.26	11	24	-13	13.0	12.6	0.46	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Brandan Wright	28	27	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.29	12	23	-11	12.0	13.1	-1.07	13.9	15.9	-2.01
Matt Barnes	26	26	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.23	8	27	-19	13.4	12.6	0.86	13.0	16.1	-3.13
Austin Croshere	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.21	7	28	-21	12.9	12.7	0.22	12.7	15.9	-3.19
Patrick O'Bryant	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	33	-31	11.0	12.9	-1.95	12.9	15.6	-2.68

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	50	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.14	-10	-25	15	14.4	16.2	-1.83	13.1	12.4	0.71
Udonis Haslem	72	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.29	-17	-18	1	15.2	15.7	-0.57	13.0	12.3	0.70
Mark Blount	37	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.25	-18	-17	-1	15.5	15.3	0.20	12.5	13.0	-0.48
Chris Quinn	73	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.47	-27	-8	-19	15.5	14.9	0.61	12.3	13.9	-1.56
Shawn Marion	91	92	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.51	-34	-1	-33	15.5	13.9	1.60	12.8	12.2	0.67
Ricky Davis	101	101	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.54	-36	1	-37	15.3	19.0	-3.70	12.8	10.0	2.83
Marcus Banks	86	88	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.43	-33	-2	-31	15.7	13.5	2.17	12.8	12.9	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 110, DET 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
NOH 96, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.4%
SAS 106, LAC 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%