NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	109		Excitement	5.2 [744]		MVP	Jared Dudley (CHA): +16.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Comeback	1.4 [499]		LVP	Marko Jaric (MIN): -11.6%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Dudley	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.04	-0.02	8	74%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.07	0.03	17	62%	0.21	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.01	0.00	9	76%	0.18	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.02	12	69%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Othella Harrington	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jermareo Davidson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	12	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Nazr Mohammed	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	11	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	8	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	18	47%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	4	67%	0.09	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	11	55%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	11	73%	0.09	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	19	45%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	6	15%	-0.05	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.0	29.0	15.6	23.5	1.7	28.1	124.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +26.9%

CHA +12.2%

MIN -6.1%

CHA +11.9%

CHA +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIN	NBA	CHA	MIN	NBA
this game	16.5	15.9	15.4	123.9	98.9	105.7
season	15.8	15.9		103.1	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.1		109.6	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.2	15.0	16.8	19.2	16.5
MIN	14.8	17.0	16.0	15.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	57	60	0.73	-0.23	0.96	-0.15	30	-10	40	16.7	16.2	0.47	16.3	14.9	1.40
Matt Carroll	83	84	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	3	14	16.6	15.2	1.38	16.1	12.0	4.14
Earl Boykins	25	25	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.12	17	3	14	15.4	17.0	-1.59	19.5	14.5	5.00
Othella Harrington	22	24	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	9	2	15.9	16.7	-0.79	19.4	14.6	4.78
Jason Richardson	69	71	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	12	-4	16.9	15.1	1.85	14.6	20.7	-6.11
Raymond Felton	75	77	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.13	14	6	8	16.7	15.5	1.22	15.0	21.2	-6.18
Emeka Okafor	66	66	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.14	9	11	-2	16.7	15.9	0.79	14.6	19.4	-4.78
Jermareo Davidson	12	13	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.00	2	18	-16	14.5	16.8	-2.32	17.3	15.6	1.68
Nazr Mohammed	31	30	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	28	-36	16.4	16.6	-0.22	15.9	15.9	-0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Snyder	62	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.18	-7	-13	6	14.5	18.9	-4.34	16.6	16.2	0.45
Chris Richard	9	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-17	14	23.1	15.1	8.05	13.3	16.9	-3.61
Randy Foye	61	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-15	10	14.8	18.2	-3.40	17.4	14.5	2.86
Al Jefferson	75	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-9	-2	14.7	21.8	-7.12	16.8	15.1	1.68
Craig Smith	31	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-14	8	17.9	14.8	3.11	16.5	16.5	0.05
Sebastian Telfair	67	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	-5	-10	16.0	15.4	0.58	16.8	15.6	1.15
Ryan Gomes	74	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	-1	-18	15.7	16.6	-0.92	16.4	17.0	-0.61
Greg Buckner	28	27	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	-7	-6	18.9	14.5	4.34	16.2	16.6	-0.45
Marko Jaric	43	39	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.11	-21	1	-22	16.6	15.2	1.32	15.1	17.6	-2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 88, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.4%
ATL 109, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.61,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.2%
ATL 103, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.25,0.26,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0,0	93.8%