NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	94		Excitement	8.8 [126]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +33.8%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	4.4 [375]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -25.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	10	73%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Devean George	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	4	87%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.02	0.09	-0.07	0.00	15	55%	0.06	1	-0.04	21	81%	0.04
Josh Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	8	44%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	5	60%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.25	-0.07	-0.19	-0.00	10	29%	-0.25	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.05

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.34	0.34	0.13	0.22	0.00	20	62%	0.38	1	-0.04	10	70%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.20	-0.01	8	78%	0.32	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.01	9	73%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	37%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	13	36%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.10
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	20	39%	-0.11	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.0	28.7	18.8	30.0	3.4	37.7	149.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +86.4%

DAL -10.2%

DAL -36.0%

SAS +3.7%

SAS +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.5	15.4	104.4	109.0	105.7
season	16.1	16.5		108.9	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.4		100.5	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	18.6	14.5	17.4	15.7
SAS	16.6	16.5	16.2	16.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	29	27	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.16	2	-5	7	16.6	15.2	1.36	16.8	16.4	0.37
Brandon Bass	56	53	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.09	0	-3	3	16.1	14.9	1.26	16.5	16.5	-0.02
Jason Terry	65	65	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.34	6	-9	15	16.2	14.4	1.75	16.9	15.6	1.28
Jerry Stackhouse	39	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	4	-11	15.8	15.6	0.23	15.4	17.3	-1.91
Josh Howard	77	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	15.1	19.2	-4.08	16.9	14.4	2.50
Jason Kidd	67	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.34	-5	2	-7	15.3	16.9	-1.62	16.7	15.8	0.93
Erick Dampier	41	44	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.49	-3	0	-3	15.5	15.8	-0.24	15.9	17.1	-1.20
Dirk Nowitzki	76	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.54	-8	5	-13	15.5	16.5	-0.99	16.5	16.8	-0.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	66	66	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.54	9	-6	15	16.3	17.1	-0.77	16.9	12.2	4.66
Michael Finley	53	54	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-9	21	16.1	17.1	-1.00	17.0	13.6	3.43
Tim Duncan	74	75	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.47	8	-5	13	16.4	17.0	-0.58	16.1	13.5	2.56
Tony Parker	60	61	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.36	-1	4	-5	17.0	15.6	1.38	16.4	14.0	2.41
Ime Udoka	36	38	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.02	11	-8	19	15.8	17.0	-1.24	15.2	16.0	-0.88
Damon Stoudamire	19	18	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.10	5	-2	7	15.5	16.8	-1.33	16.2	15.5	0.62
Manu Ginobili	71	72	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	14	-25	17.1	14.3	2.74	15.1	18.1	-2.99
Kurt Thomas	9	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	4	-5	15.4	16.6	-1.19	12.6	16.0	-3.34
Jacque Vaughn	10	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	6	-9	15.8	16.6	-0.81	11.6	16.2	-4.58
Fabricio Oberto	27	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.16	0	3	-3	17.8	16.0	1.86	14.2	16.3	-2.11
Robert Horry	20	20	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	0.06	-14	17	-31	16.7	16.5	0.24	11.8	16.8	-4.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.31,0.4,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 90, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.21,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.55,0.46,0.33,0.42,1	91.4%
BOS 90, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.77,0.57,1	90.9%
SEA 91, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.55,0.58,1	90.4%