NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	99		Excitement	5.9 [601]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +25.7%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	4.5 [774]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -16.5%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.15	-0.01	0.07	12	74%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Mickael Gelabale	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.01	0.04	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	21	49%	-0.01	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	19	51%	0.03	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	10	36%	-0.05	4	-0.11	2	0%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.07	-0.01	22	65%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.08	0.02	6	108%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	18	42%	-0.01	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	24	40%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	9	28%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	26.3	15.6	26.3	2.4	27.6	124.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +15.6%

GSW +3.2%

SEA -0.6%

GSW +32.6%

SEA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	GSW	NBA	SEA	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	15.4	98.0	104.0	105.7
season	14.5	13.5		99.1	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.0		107.9	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	11.4	14.0	16.1	14.1	13.8
GSW	13.9	14.8	13.3	17.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	24	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-7	8	13.0	14.1	-1.09	12.9	15.2	-2.32
Chris Wilcox	32	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-9	12	13.9	13.7	0.21	17.0	13.5	3.44
Adrian Griffin	2	3	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-4	2	20.0	13.7	6.33	20.0	14.6	5.44
Donyell Marshall	4	4	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	18.5	13.6	4.90	7.5	15.0	-7.52
Jeff Green	88	88	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-7	8	13.7	14.5	-0.77	15.0	12.5	2.51
Nick Collison	87	87	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-6	6	13.8	14.0	-0.24	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Mickael Gelabale	57	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-8	10	13.2	14.5	-1.33	15.3	14.0	1.32
Luke Ridnour	83	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-2	-2	14.0	12.9	1.10	15.0	13.2	1.83
Kevin Durant	87	85	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.27	-8	2	-10	13.7	14.6	-0.99	14.0	18.5	-4.49
Johan Petro	41	39	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.01	-19	13	-32	14.4	13.4	1.01	13.6	15.4	-1.80

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	92	93	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.18	18	-12	30	14.8	14.1	0.67	13.9	12.0	1.95
Austin Croshere	45	43	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-5	16	15.4	14.2	1.18	14.3	13.4	0.85
Monta Ellis	85	85	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.38	3	3	0	15.1	12.5	2.64	14.1	11.9	2.20
Mickael Pietrus	53	52	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	5	-4	14.2	15.3	-1.04	14.6	12.9	1.70
Matt Barnes	33	33	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	2	2	14.1	15.0	-0.94	12.8	14.3	-1.49
Stephen Jackson	76	75	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	4	-2	15.2	13.4	1.76	13.3	15.3	-1.99
Al Harrington	57	58	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	1	4	15.8	13.3	2.57	14.7	12.5	2.23
CJ Watson	16	16	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	3	0	12.5	15.1	-2.64	11.9	14.1	-2.20
Chris Webber	19	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	6	-6	12.4	15.3	-2.84	11.3	14.4	-3.11
Brandan Wright	20	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.00	-5	11	-16	12.9	15.2	-2.21	13.9	13.8	0.15
Kelenna Azubuike	9	8	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.14	-12	18	-30	14.1	14.8	-0.67	12.0	13.9	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.95,0.96,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 98, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
POR 90, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%
ORL 84, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%