NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	5.0 [855]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +17.9%
Los Angeles Lakers	97		Comeback	2.7 [681]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -13.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	69%	0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Ryan Anderson	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	72%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	10	48%	0.07	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.03	0.06	10	65%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	14	56%	0.12	9	-0.25	11	55%	0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.01	9	71%	0.18	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.03	0.05	17	61%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.05	12	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	10	29%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	19	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	7	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	30.4	18.8	26.2	2.8	31.3	139.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +2.4%

LAL +6.8%

LAL +0.1%

LAL +40.0%

LAL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	LAL	NBA	ORL	LAL	NBA
this game	16.2	17.7	15.5	98.8	114.1	105.7
season	15.2	15.9		106.3	108.8
opponent	15.5	16.2		103.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.0	17.0	20.2	15.0	16.2
LAL	19.8	16.4	15.8	18.5	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	2	1	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-10	7	21.0	16.1	4.90	12.0	17.7	-5.74
Ryan Anderson	60	59	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-10	7	15.4	18.1	-2.65	18.7	15.3	3.46
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.16	-3	-10	7	16.3	15.8	0.44	18.2	14.2	4.08
Chris Duhon	32	30	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-2	-9	17.2	15.6	1.61	16.1	18.5	-2.48
Jameer Nelson	53	55	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-11	9	15.6	17.2	-1.61	18.5	16.1	2.48
Gilbert Arenas	25	24	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.07	-12	-1	-11	17.5	15.7	1.85	15.0	18.7	-3.78
Dwight Howard	76	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-7	1	15.8	19.4	-3.62	17.8	16.4	1.35
Jason Richardson	70	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	15.5	19.3	-3.79	18.1	15.5	2.61
Brandon Bass	34	33	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	4	-21	18.4	14.7	3.72	15.5	19.0	-3.52

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	59	59	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.13	10	3	7	17.0	19.2	-2.19	17.3	13.8	3.46
Pau Gasol	60	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	4	5	17.9	17.1	0.84	16.8	14.8	1.94
Steve Blake	31	31	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	5	3	17.2	18.0	-0.80	16.6	16.0	0.63
Shannon Brown	34	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	6	1	17.4	17.9	-0.53	16.6	15.9	0.66
Matt Barnes	32	32	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	7	-1	17.1	18.0	-0.98	15.6	16.6	-1.04
Kobe Bryant	54	54	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	6	1	17.6	17.8	-0.21	16.2	16.2	0.03
Metta World Peace	50	49	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	7	-1	18.4	16.7	1.67	16.3	16.0	0.32
Andrew Bynum	51	51	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	6	1	18.2	16.9	1.22	14.3	19.1	-4.75
Derek Fisher	54	54	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	8	-3	18.0	17.2	0.80	16.0	16.6	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 88, MEM 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
CHA 86, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.74,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
SAS 83, UTA 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%