NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	105		Excitement	7.1 [364]		MVP	Martell Webster (POR): +31.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	94		Comeback	2.3 [288]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -24.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.22	0.07	0.06	12	88%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.21	0.06	0.15	-0.00	19	56%	0.28	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Spencer Hawes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	15	54%	0.14	2	-0.08	9	89%	0.06
Brad Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	11	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	3	37%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
John Salmons	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.08	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.14	0.19	0.02	10	75%	0.31	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.12	-0.02	18	57%	0.25	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	86%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	11	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	18	31%	-0.17	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	28.2	15.7	24.6	1.8	36.0	131.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +25.5%

SAC +8.2%

SAC +31.6%

POR -18.4%

SAC +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	POR	NBA	SAC	POR	NBA
this game	16.5	16.6	15.4	120.7	108.0	105.7
season	14.9	16.7		105.6	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.0		106.1	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.1	18.6	15.9	16.7	16.5
POR	17.6	17.4	16.1	15.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	70	70	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.18	20	-9	29	15.5	20.6	-5.12	16.6	16.5	0.06
Brad Miller	71	71	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.21	19	-8	27	16.3	17.7	-1.42	16.8	15.7	1.09
Beno Udrih	72	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-4	19	15.9	19.6	-3.71	16.4	17.4	-1.02
Metta World Peace	61	61	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-1	13	16.5	16.5	-0.01	17.1	15.4	1.64
Francisco Garcia	39	38	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	7	-3	17.5	15.7	1.78	15.7	17.3	-1.63
Mikki Moore	42	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	6	-1	16.3	16.8	-0.52	18.2	15.1	3.16
Shelden Williams	12	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	15	-19	16.2	16.6	-0.32	12.4	17.1	-4.72
Anthony Johnson	17	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	15	-19	18.2	16.1	2.05	16.4	16.6	-0.21
Spencer Hawes	21	24	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.09	-5	16	-21	17.5	16.2	1.31	16.0	16.8	-0.74
John Salmons	30	32	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.10	-7	18	-25	18.6	15.4	3.16	16.3	16.7	-0.46

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sergio Rodriguez	7	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-11	11	20.1	16.3	3.88	19.3	16.3	3.00
Joel Przybilla	31	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-10	9	18.4	15.6	2.87	17.2	16.1	1.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	64	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-6	1	16.6	16.4	0.19	16.4	16.8	-0.37
Jarrett Jack	64	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-5	-1	17.0	15.4	1.61	17.2	14.5	2.73
Steve Blake	58	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-3	-5	16.4	16.9	-0.53	15.4	18.8	-3.34
Channing Frye	29	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	16.1	16.8	-0.66	16.1	16.7	-0.66
Travis Outlaw	50	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-3	-5	15.6	17.9	-2.24	16.5	16.6	-0.14
Brandon Roy	73	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	-1	-9	16.5	17.1	-0.59	16.1	18.8	-2.63
Martell Webster	59	58	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	-2	-7	16.0	17.8	-1.84	17.0	15.6	1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.57,0.33,0.59,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.11,0.1,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 95, NOH 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.41,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.7%
NOP 102, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.35,0.34,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.53,0.32,0.41,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.21,0.32,0.04,0	91.6%
BOS 102, ORL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.71,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.38,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.22,0.31,0.16,0	91.5%