NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	7.0 [391]		MVP	Joe Smith (CHI): +15.5%
Chicago Bulls	99		Comeback	1.4 [599]		LVP	Mark Blount (MIA): -13.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Banks	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	4	112%	0.23	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	21	60%	0.19	6	-0.17	8	75%	0.02
Shawn Marion	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	17	61%	0.14	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.02
Ricky Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	29%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	9	30%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mark Blount	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	6	30%	-0.14	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.01	13	59%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.01	18	60%	0.20	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	13	50%	0.11	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.04
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	18	49%	0.08	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.01	0.00	10	38%	-0.01	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.5	31.2	18.8	24.6	3.7	39.5	145.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +0.9%

CHI +8.7%

CHI +28.4%

CHI +10.8%

CHI +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.8	14.3	15.4	92.9	100.0	105.7
season	16.0	15.0		99.0	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.4	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.2	14.3	15.2	14.8
CHI	14.3	13.6	16.4	13.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	52	53	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.05	3	-10	13	14.7	14.9	-0.24	15.5	12.9	2.52
Earl Barron	25	24	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-6	5	15.2	14.7	0.47	14.1	14.3	-0.21
Dorell Wright	59	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-1	-5	14.7	14.9	-0.24	15.4	12.6	2.79
Dwyane Wade	88	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-5	3	14.5	17.3	-2.77	14.3	13.8	0.52
Ricky Davis	56	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-4	1	15.2	14.3	0.94	13.3	15.6	-2.25
Shawn Marion	85	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-5	3	14.7	15.6	-0.89	14.4	13.3	1.16
Marcus Banks	47	46	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.24	-10	3	-13	14.9	14.7	0.24	12.9	15.5	-2.52
Mark Blount	83	83	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	7	-21	15.0	14.1	0.89	14.0	15.9	-1.97

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	81	82	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	13.9	16.1	-2.17	14.5	16.5	-2.08
Kirk Hinrich	68	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	0	7	13.7	15.5	-1.84	15.6	13.2	2.30
Joe Smith	71	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.25	8	-1	9	14.2	14.6	-0.45	14.4	15.9	-1.56
Andres Nocioni	87	88	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	-1	9	14.3	14.2	0.04	14.7	16.0	-1.34
Tyrus Thomas	80	79	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	7	-7	14.5	13.2	1.33	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Aaron Gray	15	15	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.03	7	0	7	12.8	14.5	-1.75	16.1	14.6	1.56
Chris Duhon	64	64	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	11	-15	15.3	12.5	2.82	14.8	14.8	-0.03
Joakim Noah	29	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	10	-13	14.9	14.0	0.87	15.1	14.7	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.66,0.8,0.84,0.89,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 97, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	93.1%
MIL 90, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,1	92.7%
UTA 87, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.99,1	92.7%