NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	8.1 [206]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +43.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	88		Comeback	7.1 [82]		LVP	Earl Watson (SEA): -15.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.43	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.43	0.16	0.27	-0.01	18	66%	0.45	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.11
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	21	55%	0.23	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
Michael Finley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.04	0.07	-0.11	-0.00	9	67%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ime Udoka	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	9	22%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.3	0.30	0.09	0.23	0.02	19	58%	0.32	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.05
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	9	70%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.10	0.01	14	57%	0.22	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	8	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.00	10	50%	0.10	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	8	11%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	29.3	14.7	25.2	2.5	33.6	129.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -2.2%

SEA +12.8%

SEA +34.8%

SEA +0.3%

SEA +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	18.0	15.1	15.4	97.7	101.1	105.7
season	16.5	14.5		104.7	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.3		107.9	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.8	17.3	20.6	17.8	18.0
SEA	13.8	15.5	16.4	14.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	49	49	0.58	-1.08	1.66	0.14	15	-18	33	18.7	17.0	1.71	15.7	14.3	1.42
Robert Horry	17	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	16.5	18.3	-1.81	14.3	15.3	-0.99
Ime Udoka	32	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	5	-13	17.8	18.1	-0.28	13.5	16.0	-2.53
Tim Duncan	66	66	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.33	7	-10	17	18.1	17.5	0.61	16.0	12.3	3.73
Manu Ginobili	73	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-9	15	18.0	17.7	0.33	15.2	14.5	0.70
Fabricio Oberto	60	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-3	3	18.3	17.3	0.95	14.7	16.1	-1.39
Matt Bonner	31	31	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	8	-19	17.9	18.0	-0.13	14.1	15.7	-1.53
Jacque Vaughn	66	67	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.52	-7	4	-11	17.9	18.3	-0.45	15.9	12.6	3.20
Michael Finley	41	41	-0.89	0.39	-1.27	-0.45	-15	12	-27	17.3	18.6	-1.27	14.5	15.7	-1.23

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	47	47	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.44	14	-11	25	14.5	15.8	-1.27	17.6	18.4	-0.85
Luke Ridnour	45	45	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.36	14	-11	25	14.7	15.6	-0.88	17.5	18.5	-1.08
Kevin Durant	67	66	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.42	5	-2	7	14.4	17.4	-2.97	18.4	16.6	1.87
Kurt Thomas	52	50	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.38	2	1	1	15.1	15.2	-0.09	18.6	17.1	1.48
Chris Wilcox	56	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	5	-7	15.9	13.6	2.28	17.9	18.2	-0.27
Nick Collison	44	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-4	11	14.6	15.6	-1.01	17.4	18.6	-1.26
Johan Petro	22	23	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	4	-5	14.1	15.4	-1.31	18.0	18.0	0.07
Delonte West	25	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.05	0	3	-3	16.9	14.4	2.48	17.5	18.2	-0.64
Earl Watson	42	42	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.05	-11	14	-25	15.6	14.7	0.88	18.5	17.5	1.08
Jeff Green	35	35	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.01	-13	16	-29	15.9	14.6	1.39	18.0	18.0	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.27,0.25,0.46,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 102, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.19,0.29,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.58,1	92.6%
ORL 98, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.54,0.47,0.32,0.54,0.45,0.74,1	91.5%
MIN 89, BOS 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.4,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.55,0.42,1	91.4%