NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	100		Excitement	8.2 [194]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +36.7%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	2.2 [365]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -19.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.37	-0.00	0.36	-0.01	11	60%	0.47	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.11	-0.00	17	57%	0.21	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	5	69%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Primoz Brezec	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.07	0.01	15	59%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	9	52%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.06	-0.13	0.00	15	42%	-0.12	2	-0.08	6	33%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.31	0.31	-0.03	0.35	0.02	16	50%	0.44	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.23	0.23	0.03	0.18	-0.01	16	59%	0.33	4	-0.10	12	83%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.06	-0.02	6	67%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	5	70%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	4	80%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Maurice Evans	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.05	0.01	11	62%	0.11	3	-0.09	15	60%	-0.11
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	33.5	17.3	29.4	2.7	38.3	148.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +44.7%

ORL +19.2%

DET -4.4%

DET -14.9%

ORL +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	14.9	15.4	109.9	112.1	105.7
season	16.8	15.1		108.8	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.8		104.6	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.3	16.5	17.7	17.8	16.8
ORL	14.1	13.5	15.8	16.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	22	23	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.25	3	-5	8	17.7	16.5	1.25	15.0	14.8	0.12
Antonio McDyess	53	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.32	10	-12	22	16.3	17.4	-1.06	14.7	15.1	-0.32
Walter Herrmann	2	2	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	0	-2	12.5	16.9	-4.38	9.0	15.0	-6.00
Rodney Stuckey	23	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	3	-8	18.5	16.2	2.27	16.5	14.3	2.15
Primoz Brezec	11	12	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	7	-16	18.6	16.5	2.11	15.7	14.7	0.92
Jason Maxiell	40	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	8	-18	17.5	16.2	1.33	15.5	14.3	1.22
Rasheed Wallace	74	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.46	5	-7	12	16.7	17.2	-0.56	15.0	14.5	0.46
Richard Hamilton	80	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-6	10	16.5	19.1	-2.63	14.7	15.7	-0.92
Chauncey Billups	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.50	3	-5	8	16.2	18.5	-2.27	14.3	16.5	-2.15
Tayshaun Prince	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-1	0	16.6	17.5	-0.90	14.5	16.1	-1.66
Arron Afflalo	12	12	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	6	-14	17.5	16.7	0.83	15.7	14.7	0.92

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	65	63	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.38	11	-9	20	14.7	15.3	-0.67	16.6	17.2	-0.68
Hedo Turkoglu	78	78	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	-1	4	14.4	17.5	-3.03	16.6	17.9	-1.33
Dwight Howard	78	78	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	3	-4	14.5	17.3	-2.85	16.4	19.2	-2.86
Keyon Dooling	37	35	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	0	2	14.5	15.1	-0.69	16.3	17.1	-0.71
Rashard Lewis	74	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	6	-10	15.0	14.1	0.92	16.6	17.5	-0.90
Carlos Arroyo	54	56	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	2	-2	15.1	14.5	0.69	17.1	16.3	0.71
Brian Cook	27	28	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.09	2	0	2	15.3	14.7	0.56	17.7	16.4	1.35
Adonal Foyle	13	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	-1	4	17.3	14.5	2.85	19.2	16.4	2.86
Maurice Evans	29	31	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	8	-14	15.7	14.5	1.16	17.3	16.5	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.75,0.71,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, LAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.47,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.91,1	92.5%
PHI 91, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.96,1	92.4%
SEA 99, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.91,0.98,1	92.1%