NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Excitement	9.4 [83]		MVP	Ryan Gomes (MIN): +48.4%
Golden State Warriors	108		Comeback	2.5 [93]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -43.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.48	0.24	0.23	-0.01	15	83%	0.55	3	-0.06	12	92%	0.09
Al Jefferson	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0,0,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	18	55%	0.17	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.13	-0.00	5	42%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rashad McCants	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.07	0.00	12	58%	0.14	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	10	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
Craig Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.24,-0.29	-0.10	-0.19	-0.00	16	44%	-0.14	5	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.11	0.02	18	60%	0.23	1	-0.04	11	91%	0.06
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.00	12	71%	0.20	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	13	56%	0.17	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	2	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	12	37%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.01	14	42%	-0.40	2	-0.04	8	37%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	26.4	15.8	29.0	2.5	32.6	133.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +64.9%

GSW -1.4%

GSW -7.7%

GSW -7.3%

MIN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	16.1	12.3	15.4	105.8	109.1	105.7
season	15.9	13.5		102.2	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.0		107.9	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.9	16.6	14.6	19.0	16.1
GSW	11.1	11.5	12.6	14.3	12.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad McCants	74	69	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-14	29	14.8	19.6	-4.86	11.9	13.2	-1.22
Marko Jaric	98	94	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	0	1	16.5	8.8	7.70	12.3	12.6	-0.30
Ryan Gomes	88	84	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	-2	5	16.1	16.3	-0.16	12.5	11.5	1.00
Craig Smith	25	23	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-10	21	15.4	16.4	-1.01	12.0	12.4	-0.46
Sebastian Telfair	77	76	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.55	-11	12	-23	16.6	14.6	2.02	12.4	12.1	0.24
Corey Brewer	35	32	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	-5	11	14.0	17.2	-3.22	11.7	12.6	-0.97
Al Jefferson	78	76	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.39	-10	11	-21	16.4	15.4	1.01	12.4	12.0	0.46
Antoine Walker	40	41	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.16	-10	11	-21	18.7	14.5	4.17	13.1	11.8	1.30

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	31	30	0.38	-0.88	1.26	-0.15	18	-19	37	12.6	12.2	0.48	20.0	14.5	5.42
Patrick O'Bryant	8	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-1	1	11.1	12.4	-1.29	15.9	16.1	-0.26
Mickael Pietrus	8	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	8	-17	10.0	12.5	-2.52	13.7	16.4	-2.70
Andris Biedrins	43	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	5	-11	11.9	12.6	-0.76	15.4	16.7	-1.37
Al Harrington	72	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.41	6	-7	13	12.3	12.3	0.07	16.1	16.1	0.08
Baron Davis	80	85	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-2	3	12.3	12.2	0.19	16.3	15.1	1.23
Kelenna Azubuike	30	30	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	1	-3	13.2	11.9	1.27	16.7	15.9	0.81
Stephen Jackson	81	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.49	4	-5	9	12.2	12.8	-0.57	16.2	16.0	0.15
Monta Ellis	76	79	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	10	-21	12.3	12.5	-0.22	15.0	19.7	-4.67
Matt Barnes	66	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.47	-6	5	-11	12.6	11.8	0.79	16.0	16.4	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.1,0.2,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.17,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.26,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.27,0	90.8%
MIN 119, OKC 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.56,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.69,0	90.5%
SAS 102, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.31,0.43,0.27,0	90.2%