NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	8.2 [203]		MVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): +20.5%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	1.4 [196]		LVP	Rafer Alston (ORL): -11.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.11	-0.00	13	72%	0.34	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.18,0.09	-0.03	0.12	0.01	20	55%	0.36	5	-0.27	4	100%	0.10
Andrea Bargnani	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	13	57%	0.05	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.07
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	60%	0.01
Roko Leni Ukic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.01	12	54%	0.18	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.09
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0,0.1,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	19	46%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	16	57%	0.07	1	-0.01	21	48%	-0.22
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	4	30%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	12	46%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	28.2	17.4	26.4	1.8	38.5	141.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +50.8%

TOR +9.4%

TOR +23.2%

ORL -33.4%

TOR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.3	15.5	103.1	99.0	106.4
season	15.1	15.3		105.0	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		101.4	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	16.2	14.3	17.7	15.7
ORL	14.0	12.6	16.3	14.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	80	79	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.37	9	-5	14	15.3	17.6	-2.32	14.1	15.1	-0.98
Anthony Parker	58	58	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-4	12	14.8	17.0	-2.22	13.7	15.3	-1.57
Shawn Marion	84	84	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-2	8	15.5	17.3	-1.88	14.3	14.7	-0.40
Joey Graham	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	2	0	15.9	15.4	0.47	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Jake Voskuhl	15	14	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	-3	10	11.5	16.5	-5.00	16.1	14.0	2.06
Chris Bosh	78	80	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.32	-4	8	-12	16.1	14.1	2.01	14.0	15.8	-1.80
Andrea Bargnani	50	51	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	2	0	16.2	15.1	1.07	14.6	14.0	0.63
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	12	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	5	-6	17.1	15.5	1.60	13.9	14.4	-0.46
Jason Kapono	38	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	8	-12	17.0	14.8	2.22	15.3	13.7	1.57
Roko Leni Ukic	16	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	9	-14	17.6	15.3	2.32	15.1	14.1	0.98

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	29	29	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-8	12	14.0	14.4	-0.45	16.4	15.4	1.04
Marcin Gortat	18	18	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-6	8	13.2	14.6	-1.34	17.7	15.2	2.44
Tony Battie	23	24	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-4	4	15.4	14.0	1.42	17.9	14.9	2.97
Mickael Pietrus	48	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-2	0	15.4	13.2	2.17	16.0	15.4	0.61
Hedo Turkoglu	82	81	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-8	12	14.0	15.9	-1.81	16.1	13.3	2.79
Rashard Lewis	73	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.0	15.4	-1.42	14.9	17.9	-2.97
Dwight Howard	78	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	2	-8	14.6	13.2	1.34	15.2	17.7	-2.44
Rafer Alston	67	67	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	4	-12	14.4	14.0	0.45	15.4	16.4	-1.04
Courtney Lee	62	61	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.35	-10	6	-16	13.8	15.2	-1.38	14.9	17.1	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.26,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 115, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.29,0.14,0,0	92.1%
DET 95, SAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.02,0	91.8%
CHI 91, UTA 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.27,0	91.8%