NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	80		Excitement	7.7 [269]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +13.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	87		Comeback	1.5 [689]		LVP	Royal Ivey (MIL): -25.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	13	59%	0.15	2	-0.10	11	91%	0.07
Lorenzen Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.05
Acie Law	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.02	6	58%	-0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	16	33%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Josh Smith	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	20	40%	-0.08	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Al Horford	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	7	37%	-0.09	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	14	58%	0.19	1	-0.05	8	62%	-0.06
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	5	30%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	15	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jake Voskuhl	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Awvee Storey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	13	37%	-0.07	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.04
Yi Jianlian	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	16	42%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.2,-0.21,-0.26	-0.26	-0.19	-0.09	-0.02	13	30%	-0.10	5	-0.16	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	27.2	16.4	26.2	1.8	40.1	139.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.5%

ATL -26.6%

MIL +19.6%

MIL +16.7%

MIL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.2	17.5	15.4	87.0	96.7	105.7
season	15.4	15.8		104.2	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.7		110.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.9	15.9	13.2	12.2	14.2
MIL	16.1	19.4	17.5	17.3	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	29	29	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.06	1	-8	9	12.8	14.8	-2.00	16.8	17.9	-1.13
Shelden Williams	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-7	7	13.1	14.3	-1.17	17.3	17.5	-0.21
Lorenzen Wright	25	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-5	3	14.0	14.2	-0.17	16.2	18.0	-1.81
Acie Law	24	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-2	-3	14.1	14.2	-0.11	16.6	17.8	-1.22
Josh Childress	41	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	1	-9	14.9	13.6	1.25	17.5	17.6	-0.11
Marvin Williams	77	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.29	0	-7	7	13.0	20.0	-6.97	17.6	17.1	0.45
Al Horford	56	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-4	1	14.7	13.4	1.27	18.1	16.5	1.59
Anthony Johnson	51	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-6	5	14.8	13.3	1.48	18.3	16.6	1.65
Joe Johnson	74	71	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.30	-7	0	-7	14.7	12.1	2.62	17.3	18.2	-0.87
Josh Smith	74	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.31	-10	3	-13	14.4	13.4	0.96	17.8	16.5	1.22

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-4	15	17.7	15.6	2.19	14.4	12.2	2.25
Andrew Bogut	72	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-2	11	17.4	17.9	-0.46	14.6	12.1	2.58
Royal Ivey	68	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	1	5	17.5	17.7	-0.27	14.9	12.0	2.83
Charlie Villanueva	54	55	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	1	5	16.7	18.8	-2.09	12.9	16.1	-3.21
Charlie Bell	49	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	3	1	17.5	17.5	-0.03	13.5	15.0	-1.48
Bobby Simmons	45	48	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	3	1	17.4	17.7	-0.33	14.5	13.7	0.79
Yi Jianlian	52	53	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	6	-5	18.6	16.1	2.50	14.7	13.5	1.17
Jake Voskuhl	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	7	-7	20.6	17.3	3.31	10.2	14.4	-4.28
Dan Gadzuric	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	9	-11	16.2	17.7	-1.53	13.1	14.3	-1.22
Awvee Storey	11	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	11	-15	16.2	17.7	-1.53	13.4	14.3	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.85,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 90, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.69,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.95,1,1	93.0%
DET 79, DEN 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.66,0.84,1,1	92.3%
NYK 85, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.75,0.93,0.89,0.98,1	92.3%