NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	116		Excitement	3.6 [1062]		MVP	Channing Frye (POR): +10.5%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	1.1 [286]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -12.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.00	0.01	13	77%	0.11	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.01	0.06	6	93%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	55%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	8	75%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	15	50%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	71%	0.09	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	27	43%	-0.00	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	90%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	11	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.16	-0.00	0.14	22	64%	0.07	3	-0.05	15	87%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	0.04	11	46%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	17	45%	-0.03	5	-0.10	8	62%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	26.5	14.6	28.5	2.3	31.7	129.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +26.7%

POR +1.6%

POR +16.9%

POR +4.3%

POR +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	18.3	13.0	15.4	126.1	114.1	105.7
season	16.7	13.3		105.5	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.4	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.2	16.1	18.3	22.2	18.3
DEN	14.1	11.6	13.0	13.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	77	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-5	21	18.4	17.8	0.56	12.8	14.3	-1.47
Channing Frye	50	49	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	0	11	17.9	18.7	-0.86	13.1	13.0	0.15
Travis Outlaw	55	56	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	5	1	18.1	18.5	-0.45	12.4	14.1	-1.73
James Jones	58	58	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	7	-3	18.2	18.4	-0.27	12.4	14.1	-1.67
Steve Blake	50	50	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	7	-3	18.4	18.1	0.37	12.7	13.4	-0.73
Joel Przybilla	57	56	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	7	-3	19.3	16.6	2.70	13.3	12.6	0.65
Jarrett Jack	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	5	1	18.4	18.2	0.23	13.4	12.7	0.77
Martell Webster	34	34	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	4	3	18.4	18.2	0.27	14.1	12.4	1.67
Raef LaFrentz	21	22	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	9	-7	16.2	18.9	-2.64	13.9	12.8	1.15
Sergio Rodriguez	15	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.12	-5	16	-21	17.8	18.4	-0.56	14.3	12.8	1.47

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jelani McCoy	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	14.0	13.0	0.98	27.0	18.1	8.92
Bobby Jones	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	14.0	13.0	0.98	27.0	18.1	8.92
Yakhouba Diawara	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	14.0	13.0	0.98	27.0	18.1	8.92
Linas Kleiza	52	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-13	15	13.0	13.0	-0.03	18.0	18.5	-0.51
Eduardo Najera	47	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-12	13	12.6	13.5	-0.98	17.3	19.2	-1.84
Marcus Camby	64	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-1	-9	13.8	11.4	2.41	18.6	17.6	0.96
Anthony Carter	54	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	2	-15	12.4	13.9	-1.47	18.2	18.4	-0.16
Allen Iverson	88	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	1	-13	13.2	10.0	3.17	18.3	18.2	0.08
Kenyon Martin	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.09	-19	8	-27	12.7	14.3	-1.62	18.1	18.8	-0.70
Carmelo Anthony	81	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.09	-13	2	-15	13.3	11.2	2.10	18.2	18.5	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
BOS 115, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
SAS 103, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%