NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	99		Excitement	5.7 [637]		MVP	Kurt Thomas (SEA): +11.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Comeback	3.8 [220]		LVP	Kevin Durant (SEA): -26.9%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	12	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	15	54%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	4	64%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Damien Wilkins	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	52%	0.03	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	9	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.23	-0.09	-0.06	17	34%	-0.10	8	-0.17	4	100%	0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	91%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	16	53%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	9	46%	0.05	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	18	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	10	25%	-0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.01	13	34%	-0.07	4	-0.12	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.4	28.2	15.4	28.6	2.3	29.7	131.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +10.9%

SEA +13.4%

SEA +15.6%

SEA +9.0%

SEA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIN	NBA	SEA	MIN	NBA
this game	14.1	14.6	15.4	98.0	88.0	105.7
season	14.5	15.9		99.1	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.0		109.6	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.6	12.3	13.6	17.3	14.1
MIN	13.6	15.5	15.2	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	76	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-5	21	13.9	14.8	-0.94	14.9	13.5	1.45
Damien Wilkins	51	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	0	11	13.3	14.9	-1.61	14.5	14.6	-0.05
Kurt Thomas	60	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	1	9	14.7	13.2	1.42	14.3	15.0	-0.66
Luke Ridnour	54	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	1	9	14.3	13.9	0.37	14.3	14.9	-0.57
Kevin Durant	72	74	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.12	6	5	1	14.3	13.6	0.75	14.8	14.0	0.82
Nick Collison	49	47	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.05	6	5	1	13.5	14.7	-1.16	14.7	14.5	0.17
Earl Watson	47	47	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.14	1	10	-9	13.9	14.3	-0.37	14.9	14.3	0.57
Jeff Green	49	46	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	14	-17	14.8	13.4	1.33	14.7	14.5	0.15
Wally Szczerbiak	43	40	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	11	-11	13.6	14.5	-0.92	14.4	14.7	-0.33
Johan Petro	4	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	13	-15	20.7	13.8	6.94	9.2	14.9	-5.65

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	52	53	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.09	5	-16	21	14.8	14.4	0.42	13.6	14.6	-0.98
Antoine Walker	23	23	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-12	13	13.3	15.0	-1.70	13.7	14.2	-0.57
Gerald Green	5	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-5	-1	15.0	14.5	0.45	8.0	14.5	-6.47
Ryan Gomes	27	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-8	5	15.4	14.3	1.10	14.3	14.0	0.29
Corey Brewer	70	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-7	3	14.1	15.7	-1.57	14.2	13.9	0.31
Rashad McCants	55	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-10	9	14.9	14.2	0.75	15.1	12.8	2.24
Marko Jaric	82	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-6	1	14.2	16.1	-1.88	14.2	13.7	0.49
Sebastian Telfair	68	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-2	-7	14.9	14.0	0.88	13.9	14.6	-0.72
Craig Smith	41	42	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.08	-15	4	-19	14.6	14.6	0.03	14.5	13.8	0.62
Al Jefferson	77	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.10	-18	7	-25	14.8	13.8	1.02	14.0	14.3	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 87, PHX 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
PHX 109, WAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
DEN 103, ORL 89	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%