NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	5.7 [653]		MVP	Brian Skinner (PHX): +15.5%
Phoenix Suns	113		Comeback	1.2 [175]		LVP	Leandro Barbosa (PHX): -20.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	7	86%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	15	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	12	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.02	10	75%	0.13	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Ricky Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	55%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.08	21	66%	0.12	5	-0.14	5	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	6	87%	0.15	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.01	0.04	11	86%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.02	0.03	13	61%	0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Raja Bell	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.05	-0.01	16	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.09	-0.03	0.11	16	59%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.04	0.04	13	41%	-0.10	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	17	31%	-0.12	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	24.6	15.6	28.8	1.7	34.2	129.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.7%

MIA +13.3%

MIA +14.0%

PHX -24.5%

PHX -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	15.9	13.6	15.4	119.4	116.5	105.7
season	16.0	13.8		99.0	111.1
opponent	15.6	15.4		106.5	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	17.1	16.8	13.8	15.9
PHX	11.2	14.2	16.0	13.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	69	67	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.37	8	-4	12	15.8	16.2	-0.42	13.7	13.3	0.45
Shaquille O'Neal	60	58	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-7	18	16.6	14.9	1.72	13.4	13.8	-0.45
Udonis Haslem	98	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.9	0.0	15.95	13.6	0.0	13.58
Dwyane Wade	88	86	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	3	-2	15.8	16.9	-1.06	13.2	16.3	-3.04
Chris Quinn	69	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-10	24	16.1	15.6	0.52	13.6	13.5	0.08
Ricky Davis	69	69	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.41	-11	15	-26	15.8	16.2	-0.42	13.7	13.2	0.46
Alonzo Mourning	37	38	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	11	-18	15.3	16.3	-1.05	14.1	13.2	0.87

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	39	41	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.37	15	-19	34	13.9	13.4	0.49	15.3	16.4	-1.04
Steve Nash	73	74	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.33	7	-11	18	12.9	15.7	-2.83	16.2	15.2	1.04
Shawn Marion	85	85	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-9	14	13.3	15.7	-2.38	16.2	14.5	1.71
Boris Diaw	31	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	3	-10	15.1	12.8	2.28	17.4	15.3	2.06
Amar'e Stoudemire	76	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-1	-2	13.4	14.2	-0.84	16.3	14.5	1.81
Raja Bell	74	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	0	-4	12.8	16.0	-3.12	15.6	17.1	-1.53
Leandro Barbosa	40	39	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	11	-26	15.3	12.4	2.89	15.7	16.1	-0.47
Grant Hill	67	67	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.26	-18	14	-32	13.8	13.0	0.84	15.2	17.5	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.23,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 100, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
SAS 83, UTA 69	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
LAC 90, MIN 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%