NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	7.1 [351]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +23.1%
Golden State Warriors	120		Comeback	14.8 [183]		LVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): -17.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	14	59%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	6	87%	0.14	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Jason Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	73%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	19	49%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	23	57%	0.12	7	-0.17	12	92%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.11	-0.03	8	28%	-0.06	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0.01,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.18	-0.01	19	58%	0.30	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.21,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.16	0.01	15	54%	0.23	0	0.00	9	78%	0.03
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.01	8	65%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	78%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.02	20	57%	0.09	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	36%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	12	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.3	30.1	15.6	27.5	2.5	36.5	143.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +13.5%

GSW +22.0%

MIA -23.7%

GSW +39.8%

MIA -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.3	13.3	15.4	111.9	120.0	105.7
season	16.0	13.5		99.0	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.4		107.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	16.0	17.6	14.2	15.3
GSW	12.7	12.8	14.4	13.5	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	40	40	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-13	19	15.3	15.3	0.01	12.8	13.7	-0.88
Shaquille O'Neal	44	45	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-14	21	16.1	14.7	1.45	12.7	13.8	-1.08
Alonzo Mourning	26	26	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.13	-3	-4	1	15.6	15.2	0.35	14.0	13.1	0.85
Udonis Haslem	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	-2	-3	15.0	16.1	-1.03	13.5	12.9	0.60
Dorell Wright	90	87	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	1	-9	14.9	18.4	-3.42	13.3	13.2	0.11
Dwyane Wade	96	95	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	0	-7	15.2	18.0	-2.82	13.1	18.2	-5.13
Ricky Davis	78	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.32	-10	3	-13	16.0	13.0	3.00	13.8	11.8	2.00
Daequan Cook	57	55	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.29	-15	8	-23	14.8	16.0	-1.17	13.5	13.1	0.36

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelenna Azubuike	41	42	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-4	15	13.5	13.2	0.35	14.9	15.6	-0.79
Monta Ellis	82	84	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-2	11	13.3	13.6	-0.34	15.2	15.6	-0.40
Baron Davis	88	89	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-1	9	13.3	13.4	-0.10	15.6	12.9	2.72
Stephen Jackson	92	94	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.26	10	-3	13	13.1	16.2	-3.17	15.1	17.9	-2.73
Matt Barnes	60	60	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	6	-5	14.3	11.8	2.51	15.0	15.7	-0.70
Al Harrington	39	39	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.28	-8	15	-23	13.6	13.1	0.51	15.7	15.1	0.57
Mickael Pietrus	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.17	6	1	5	11.0	14.0	-2.97	17.6	14.7	2.91
Andris Biedrins	51	50	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.16	5	2	3	13.0	13.7	-0.71	14.9	15.7	-0.87
Troy Hudson	20	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	9	-11	14.6	13.0	1.59	14.4	15.5	-1.10
DJ Mbenga	4	5	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	12	-17	11.7	13.4	-1.65	16.2	15.3	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.25,0.54,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 112, IND 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.38,0.64,0.85,0.9,1	92.9%
LAC 96, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.17,0.2,0.07,0.25,0.55,0.76,0.99,1	92.1%
CHA 100, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.33,0.25,0.54,0.76,0.82,1	91.2%