NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	115		Excitement	7.1 [372]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +15.4%
Orlando Magic	109		Comeback	9.7 [37]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -23.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.13	0.03	13	67%	0.24	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	9	60%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	8	52%	0.15	2	-0.05	9	56%	0.03
Danny Granger	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.01	20	61%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	3	60%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	60%	0.03	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-0.03	18	37%	-0.07	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	13	71%	0.25	6	-0.15	16	75%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.05	16	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	11	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
James Augustine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	9	58%	0.01	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	2	75%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.07	-0.03	15	32%	-0.08	6	-0.15	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	31.0	16.4	30.5	1.8	39.2	148.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +26.7%

ORL -1.3%

IND +9.1%

IND +18.0%

ORL -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ORL	NBA	IND	ORL	NBA
this game	12.7	14.3	15.4	107.5	102.8	105.7
season	13.8	15.1		104.5	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.2		104.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.6	13.4	11.2	12.7	12.7
ORL	13.1	15.4	14.9	14.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	55	54	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-1	8	13.6	11.8	1.83	14.1	14.6	-0.58
Jamaal Tinsley	86	85	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	3	0	12.4	13.9	-1.49	14.3	14.5	-0.17
Mike Dunleavy	76	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	-2	10	11.8	14.9	-3.04	14.6	13.8	0.80
Jeff Foster	69	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	2	2	13.4	11.4	2.04	14.9	13.4	1.55
Jermaine O'Neal	80	80	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	7	-8	12.3	13.9	-1.63	14.3	14.5	-0.16
Troy Murphy	39	37	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.09	8	-2	10	13.9	12.0	1.91	14.4	14.3	0.06
Danny Granger	87	88	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	9	-12	12.1	15.2	-3.12	14.0	16.2	-2.27
Shawne Williams	43	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	2	2	13.4	12.2	1.15	14.3	14.4	-0.06

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	15	15	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.04	4	-10	14	14.9	14.2	0.69	14.0	12.5	1.50
Brian Cook	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-5	4	12.7	14.7	-1.96	13.7	12.5	1.28
Dwight Howard	81	82	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.22	4	-10	14	14.2	14.8	-0.55	13.0	11.9	1.08
James Augustine	8	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-4	2	12.4	14.5	-2.13	11.3	12.8	-1.52
Carlos Arroyo	38	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-7	8	14.3	14.4	-0.12	12.8	12.6	0.21
JJ Redick	23	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-3	0	13.3	14.6	-1.38	10.5	13.3	-2.80
Keith Bogans	73	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-6	0	-6	15.1	12.7	2.43	12.6	12.9	-0.26
Maurice Evans	46	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	4	-14	13.5	15.0	-1.44	12.6	12.8	-0.27
Jameer Nelson	68	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	14.4	14.3	0.12	12.6	12.8	-0.21
Hedo Turkoglu	77	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	-1	-4	14.4	14.1	0.37	12.8	12.4	0.38
Rashard Lewis	81	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	14.9	12.4	2.54	12.8	12.5	0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 102, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.6%
CLE 112, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.05,0,0.02,0	92.2%
GSW 99, MIN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.32,0.19,0.14,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	92.2%