NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	6.2 [538]		MVP	Caron Butler (WAS): +26.4%
Washington Wizards	101		Comeback	2.0 [582]		LVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): -18.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.01	13	72%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Rasho Nesterovic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	15	56%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	16	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	65%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Maceo Baston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	15	53%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	-0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	13	15%	-0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.19	0.10	0.03	18	69%	0.26	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.10	-0.01	18	67%	0.32	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	11	68%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.01	6	79%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	44%	0.06	4	-0.15	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.3	28.4	26.5	23.6	2.0	35.2	139.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +75.3%

TOR -3.4%

TOR -5.4%

TOR -17.2%

WAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.4	109.0	112.2	105.7
season	15.6	16.1		108.5	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.7		107.4	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	20.2	17.3	15.9	14.5	16.9
WAS	15.0	14.0	16.1	16.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	51	51	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.04	7	-11	18	17.5	16.1	1.42	15.9	14.5	1.38
T.J. Ford	28	26	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.09	5	-9	14	15.7	17.4	-1.63	14.7	15.6	-0.89
Maceo Baston	8	8	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-6	8	13.7	17.2	-3.42	13.7	15.5	-1.73
Jason Kapono	60	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-5	6	15.6	19.5	-3.93	15.3	15.3	-0.00
Andrea Bargnani	44	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	6	-16	17.7	16.1	1.57	15.5	15.2	0.33
Carlos Delfino	57	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-2	0	16.1	18.3	-2.21	15.0	15.8	-0.78
Anthony Parker	56	59	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	2	-8	17.7	15.4	2.39	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Jose Calderon	61	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	5	-14	17.4	15.7	1.63	15.6	14.7	0.89
Jamario Moon	80	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.39	-8	4	-12	17.3	13.3	3.93	15.2	16.1	-0.88

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	34	34	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.12	20	-16	36	14.3	15.9	-1.65	16.7	17.0	-0.26
Caron Butler	80	79	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-4	12	15.4	14.4	1.04	17.2	14.5	2.66
Roger Mason Jr.	47	48	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.22	12	-8	20	14.8	15.9	-1.16	16.6	17.2	-0.57
Antawn Jamison	71	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-3	10	15.3	15.3	0.01	17.2	15.6	1.63
DeShawn Stevenson	52	50	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	-2	8	15.2	15.5	-0.26	17.8	15.7	2.09
Andray Blatche	33	33	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.28	-5	9	-14	15.0	15.5	-0.51	15.3	17.8	-2.53
Antonio Daniels	65	65	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.34	-9	13	-22	15.7	14.4	1.33	16.5	17.9	-1.38
Nick Young	16	15	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	5	-6	15.8	15.2	0.60	16.3	17.0	-0.72
Dominic McGuire	20	21	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.05	-9	13	-22	14.7	15.5	-0.80	14.9	17.5	-2.63
Brendan Haywood	32	32	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.01	-9	13	-22	16.8	14.5	2.36	18.4	16.0	2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.73,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.71,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.98,0.97,1,1	94.3%
GSW 95, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%
SAS 88, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.99,0.95,1	93.4%