NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	78		Excitement	5.8 [625]		MVP	Jamario Moon (TOR): +14.1%
Toronto Raptors	93		Comeback	2.4 [657]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -15.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.07	0.02	11	68%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Andres Nocioni	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	15	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Luol Deng	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	18	48%	-0.03	4	-0.10	8	75%	-0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.10	0.03	18	44%	-0.07	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	12	58%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.05	-0.03	6	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	15	59%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	39%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	13	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	13	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	9	39%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.0	26.3	18.4	22.2	2.4	30.5	126.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +28.1%

TOR +8.0%

CHI -1.6%

TOR +13.9%

TOR +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	17.1	15.4	85.7	106.9	105.7
season	15.0	15.6		102.2	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	15.2	17.8	13.4	15.3
TOR	16.2	15.4	17.4	19.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	25	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-16	17	14.0	15.8	-1.83	15.5	17.7	-2.17
Aaron Gray	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-13	11	9.5	15.5	-5.96	21.0	17.0	3.98
Joakim Noah	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-13	11	9.5	15.5	-5.96	21.0	17.0	3.98
Thabo Sefolosha	30	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	-10	5	15.0	15.5	-0.54	15.4	17.8	-2.42
Tyrus Thomas	30	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-9	3	18.5	13.8	4.68	16.3	17.5	-1.19
Ben Gordon	76	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-10	5	15.8	13.1	2.71	17.4	15.5	1.87
Kirk Hinrich	77	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-12	9	15.0	17.0	-1.97	17.2	16.0	1.22
Andres Nocioni	59	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-8	1	13.9	17.9	-3.97	17.4	16.4	0.97
Chris Duhon	22	19	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	2	-19	15.6	15.2	0.34	14.5	17.8	-3.25
Ben Wallace	64	62	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	-1	-13	16.0	13.7	2.36	17.6	15.7	1.89
Luol Deng	68	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	0	-15	15.2	15.6	-0.32	18.0	14.3	3.68

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	78	80	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.12	20	-5	25	17.0	17.9	-0.91	15.6	13.3	2.34
Jose Calderon	72	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	5	5	17.6	14.5	3.14	15.4	15.0	0.41
Carlos Delfino	57	59	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-1	17	16.7	17.8	-1.12	14.1	17.7	-3.59
Anthony Parker	51	53	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.13	15	0	15	18.0	15.7	2.30	16.1	14.3	1.74
Jamario Moon	62	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	8	-1	18.1	14.4	3.75	15.4	15.0	0.41
Jason Kapono	36	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	15	-15	15.7	18.0	-2.30	14.3	16.1	-1.74
Andrea Bargnani	47	50	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	15	-15	17.5	16.5	0.96	17.2	13.0	4.20
Kris Humphries	17	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	13	-11	13.6	17.9	-4.25	12.7	16.0	-3.34
Juan Dixon	15	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.19	5	10	-5	14.5	17.6	-3.14	15.0	15.4	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.57,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 90, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.93,1,1,1	93.4%
PHX 97, UTA 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.82,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
MIN 92, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.96,0.96,0.99,1	93.1%