NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	95		Excitement	7.1 [359]		MVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): +19.8%
Sacramento Kings	105		Comeback	3.6 [184]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -12.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	10	71%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	-0.00	12	68%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Jason Maxiell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	5	42%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Cheikh Samb	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	0%	-0.15
Ronald Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	13	46%	-0.03	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	14	47%	-0.09	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.04	-0.00	13	74%	0.28	1	-0.08	5	100%	0.05
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.11	-0.04	9	53%	0.19	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.04	0.12	-0.02	11	45%	0.14	2	-0.03	11	82%	0.04
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.06	0.02	17	45%	0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	11	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	0.06	4	55%	-0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.8	36.4	16.4	25.6	2.6	38.2	147.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +10.0%

SAC +37.3%

SAC +2.7%

DET -6.2%

SAC +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	16.0	16.4	15.4	108.0	116.7	105.7
season	16.8	14.9		108.8	105.6
opponent	15.0	15.8		108.0	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.6	15.9	18.0	15.7	16.0
SAC	14.8	15.4	16.3	19.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	29	29	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.06	6	-16	22	16.0	16.0	-0.02	15.2	16.9	-1.73
Arron Afflalo	16	16	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-13	16	16.1	16.0	0.10	16.2	16.4	-0.16
Ronald Murray	33	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-7	4	16.7	15.5	1.20	16.3	16.4	-0.07
Cheikh Samb	11	11	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-5	0	16.5	15.9	0.65	16.1	16.4	-0.33
Jarvis Hayes	39	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-6	2	15.3	16.6	-1.29	16.6	16.2	0.49
Tayshaun Prince	72	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-8	6	15.9	16.3	-0.41	16.4	16.2	0.18
Rasheed Wallace	75	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-8	6	15.6	18.2	-2.55	16.5	15.9	0.53
Nazr Mohammed	20	21	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-7	4	17.1	15.6	1.52	18.9	15.6	3.30
Chauncey Billups	55	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	15.5	16.7	-1.20	16.4	16.3	0.07
Jason Maxiell	28	30	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.04	-18	8	-26	17.7	15.2	2.50	15.6	16.8	-1.17
Richard Hamilton	62	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.21	-15	5	-20	15.7	16.6	-0.91	16.2	16.8	-0.55

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	70	67	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.14	21	-11	32	16.8	15.0	1.71	16.1	15.6	0.53
Kevin Martin	82	80	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	2	6	16.4	16.1	0.28	15.8	18.1	-2.36
Beno Udrih	72	69	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-3	16	16.7	15.2	1.44	16.0	15.9	0.11
Mikki Moore	53	55	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	5	0	15.8	17.3	-1.52	16.1	15.8	0.21
Francisco Garcia	38	39	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.21	7	3	4	16.6	16.2	0.39	16.1	15.9	0.18
Metta World Peace	68	66	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.14	12	-2	14	16.5	16.0	0.56	16.2	15.2	1.00
Justin Williams	4	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	12	-14	10.7	16.6	-5.89	15.7	16.0	-0.24
Spencer Hawes	26	25	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	19	-28	16.2	16.5	-0.26	15.9	16.0	-0.08
John Salmons	37	35	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.12	-5	15	-20	16.2	16.5	-0.32	15.5	16.3	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.47,0.46,0.75,0.83,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 88, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.69,0.78,0.94,1,1	91.9%
IND 91, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	91.8%
PHI 89, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.79,0.93,0.99,1	91.5%