NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	6.5 [472]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (POR): +24.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	102		Comeback	2.1 [276]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -20.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	13	59%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	-0.01	-0.02	15	59%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.00	4	87%	0.16	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	58%	0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	6	57%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	0.01	0.04	6	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	20	32%	-0.15	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.12	0.00	10	77%	0.31	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.12	-0.02	16	62%	0.25	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.00	6	58%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	72%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.04
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	16	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	8	31%	-0.08	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	27.2	14.8	22.8	1.8	33.2	125.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +51.3%

DET -0.7%

POR +0.9%

DET -0.9%

DET -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	15.8	16.0	15.4	104.4	112.1	105.7
season	16.8	16.7		108.8	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.8		106.1	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.9	17.4	16.5	15.7	15.8
POR	15.5	16.1	17.0	15.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	9	9	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-11	14	14.6	15.9	-1.36	15.3	16.1	-0.79
Nazr Mohammed	8	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-3	-2	16.9	15.7	1.20	16.5	16.0	0.50
Rasheed Wallace	79	80	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-11	14	15.5	17.5	-2.01	16.1	15.5	0.57
Chauncey Billups	61	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-12	16	15.0	17.4	-2.36	16.7	14.5	2.23
Antonio McDyess	55	56	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-4	0	15.7	15.9	-0.27	16.0	16.1	-0.16
Jason Maxiell	24	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-1	-6	18.7	14.7	3.94	17.1	15.7	1.45
Ronald Murray	29	28	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	4	-16	17.4	15.0	2.36	14.5	16.7	-2.23
Richard Hamilton	76	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-1	-6	15.7	15.9	-0.18	15.9	17.0	-1.13
Tayshaun Prince	79	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-4	0	15.5	18.1	-2.64	16.2	14.6	1.62
Jarvis Hayes	30	30	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.24	-11	3	-14	15.3	16.0	-0.72	15.2	16.5	-1.26

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	43	42	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-8	24	15.5	16.5	-1.01	17.8	14.0	3.72
Travis Outlaw	44	42	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-4	16	15.3	16.7	-1.36	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Sergio Rodriguez	26	26	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-2	12	16.7	15.8	0.85	19.3	14.3	5.02
Jarrett Jack	61	60	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	2	4	15.2	17.8	-2.57	15.9	15.5	0.47
Martell Webster	66	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	4	0	16.5	14.9	1.55	16.1	15.0	1.13
Steve Blake	37	36	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.04	5	3	2	16.7	15.6	1.11	14.2	16.9	-2.69
Brandon Roy	73	73	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.10	0	8	-8	15.6	17.7	-2.09	14.7	20.5	-5.79
LaMarcus Aldridge	70	71	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	11	-14	16.1	15.7	0.43	15.4	17.2	-1.82
Channing Frye	35	35	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.05	-10	18	-28	17.8	15.0	2.81	14.9	16.3	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.96,1	93.3%
POR 83, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%
CHI 77, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.8%