NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	4.0 [981]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +18.4%
San Antonio Spurs	88		Comeback	1.4 [1135]		LVP	Michael Finley (SAS): -10.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	13	54%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	8	62%	0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	53%	-0.01	1	-0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	13	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.02
Jason Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	6	67%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Smush Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	22%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.04	-0.03	12	78%	0.24	4	-0.05	8	62%	-0.04
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	17	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	11	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.06	8	31%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	9	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Darius Washington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	8	22%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.8	30.2	18.8	28.2	2.6	37.0	146.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.1%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +12.0%

MIA -0.8%

MIA -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.7	16.4	15.4	89.7	101.1	105.7
season	16.0	16.5		99.0	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.4		100.5	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	18.6	19.5	14.2	16.7
SAS	15.7	16.6	18.4	15.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-11	12	9.5	16.9	-7.42	7.0	16.5	-9.47
Alexander Johnson	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-11	12	9.5	16.9	-7.42	7.0	16.5	-9.47
Anfernee Hardaway	53	52	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-16	22	16.1	17.8	-1.67	16.8	15.7	1.07
Alonzo Mourning	28	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.14	3	-13	16	17.0	16.6	0.37	17.6	15.8	1.74
Dorell Wright	39	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-11	12	15.6	17.6	-2.00	17.4	15.6	1.83
Mark Blount	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	-3	-4	16.0	17.1	-1.14	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Smush Parker	46	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-3	-4	17.4	16.0	1.32	17.6	14.9	2.65
Udonis Haslem	58	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-6	2	17.4	15.5	1.84	17.1	14.8	2.26
Shaquille O'Neal	55	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	16.9	16.5	0.44	16.1	16.9	-0.88
Jason Williams	58	59	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	6	-22	16.7	16.8	-0.07	15.3	18.6	-3.32
Ricky Davis	67	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	7	-24	17.5	14.3	3.18	15.5	19.6	-4.12

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	64	62	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.06	23	-13	36	15.6	18.6	-3.00	17.7	14.4	3.24
Tony Parker	74	74	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.12	10	0	10	16.6	14.7	1.96	16.9	16.0	0.88
Francisco Elson	65	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	3	4	16.8	15.2	1.57	16.2	18.3	-2.10
Michael Finley	46	48	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	1	8	15.6	17.2	-1.59	16.2	17.5	-1.29
Tim Duncan	52	52	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	3	4	17.4	14.9	2.51	18.4	14.3	4.12
Matt Bonner	39	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	5	0	15.1	17.4	-2.37	15.0	18.0	-3.04
Fabricio Oberto	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	9	-8	15.5	16.5	-0.99	18.6	16.3	2.22
Bruce Bowen	58	57	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.27	-5	15	-20	17.4	14.3	3.07	17.0	16.2	0.84
Ian Mahinmi	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	11	-12	7.0	16.5	-9.47	9.5	16.9	-7.42
Darius Washington	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	11	-12	7.0	16.5	-9.47	9.5	16.9	-7.42
Brent Barry	20	20	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	15	-20	16.7	16.2	0.51	14.6	17.4	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	95.3%
MIL 100, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.93,1,1,1	95.2%
CHA 91, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%