NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Excitement	4.8 [864]		MVP	Linas Kleiza (DEN): +16.0%
Denver Nuggets	122		Comeback	2.0 [1153]		LVP	Ricky Davis (MIN): -11.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Reed	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	14	59%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Mike James	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	47%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Mark Blount	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	15	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bracey Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.01	0.06	15	52%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Randy Foye	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.04	0.06	10	79%	0.11	7	-0.20	4	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.04	-0.05	7	29%	0.00	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	12	39%	-0.06	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.01	0.01	12	72%	0.16	1	-0.00	8	100%	0.04
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.02	9	69%	0.12	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	16	54%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	17	62%	0.15	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	5	36%	0.01	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jamal Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.03	4	78%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	0.04	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.5	35.2	15.5	25.6	2.4	28.7	132.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +6.6%

DEN +19.1%

DEN +13.3%

DEN +11.0%

MIN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	13.1	15.4	101.9	117.3	104.5
season	15.4	14.0		101.9	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		104.5	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.1	14.4	14.5	14.8	14.4
DEN	13.0	12.3	13.2	14.0	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	62	61	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.20	-5	-10	5	14.8	13.9	0.88	13.3	12.8	0.50
Mike James	29	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-13	11	13.6	14.8	-1.14	14.5	12.6	1.96
Justin Reed	55	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-10	5	14.8	14.1	0.66	13.9	12.3	1.67
Bracey Wright	58	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-9	3	14.1	14.9	-0.73	13.6	12.5	1.09
Randy Foye	87	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.06	-12	-3	-9	14.7	13.1	1.61	12.6	15.9	-3.35
Ricky Davis	77	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	3	-21	14.9	13.1	1.83	13.4	12.2	1.22
Trenton Hassell	69	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.15	-15	0	-15	14.1	15.0	-0.88	12.1	15.1	-3.07
Craig Smith	88	89	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	-3	-9	14.0	16.6	-2.62	12.7	15.3	-2.53

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	63	63	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.02	20	-5	25	12.6	13.9	-1.36	14.6	14.3	0.27
Allen Iverson	71	72	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.12	24	-9	33	13.3	12.8	0.51	14.5	14.4	0.08
Carmelo Anthony	57	56	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.01	20	-5	25	12.2	14.2	-1.94	14.6	14.3	0.23
Nene	51	51	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.03	14	1	13	12.6	13.6	-1.05	14.9	14.1	0.81
Linas Kleiza	48	50	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	11	-7	14.2	12.2	2.01	14.5	14.4	0.02
Steve Blake	71	72	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	9	-3	13.3	12.7	0.64	15.1	13.1	1.98
Reggie Evans	39	41	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.27	11	4	7	14.4	12.4	2.01	14.9	14.1	0.79
DerMarr Johnson	25	25	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	15	-15	14.0	12.8	1.12	14.8	14.3	0.51
Jamal Sampson	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	25	-35	11.6	13.3	-1.77	11.3	14.9	-3.58
J.R. Smith	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	8.9	13.4	-4.56	11.8	14.6	-2.77
Yakhouba Diawara	49	51	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	17	-19	14.1	12.2	1.92	14.3	14.6	-0.37
Anthony Carter	25	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.23	-11	26	-37	11.7	13.6	-1.88	12.7	15.0	-2.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 102, MIN 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MEM 96, POR 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
POR 82, SEA 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%