NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	112		Excitement	7.4 [368]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +33.5%
Sacramento Kings	106		Comeback	3.3 [486]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -24.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.20	0.15	0.02	6	112%	0.33	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.08	-0.04	28	59%	0.30	6	-0.12	12	75%	-0.02
Charles Hayes	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	60%	0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Yao Ming	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.02	0.02	8	78%	0.14	1	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kirk Snyder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.01	10	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Bonzi Wells	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	8	37%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.1,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.12	-0.00	10	70%	0.28	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Justin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	3	80%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.08	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	0.00	0.07	18	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.03	14	43%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.25	-0.25	-0.17	-0.08	-0.00	14	29%	-0.13	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	31.0	15.6	25.3	2.5	37.4	139.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +45.5%

SAC -7.4%

HOU +5.2%

HOU +7.4%

SAC -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAC	NBA	HOU	SAC	NBA
this game	14.0	15.5	15.4	115.5	108.2	104.5
season	15.6	14.7		103.6	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.0	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.2	13.3	14.3	14.2	14.0
SAC	13.5	18.0	17.0	14.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	62	65	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.56	10	-4	14	14.1	13.8	0.28	14.7	17.2	-2.55
Rafer Alston	87	89	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.29	12	-6	18	14.0	13.9	0.12	15.4	17.0	-1.63
Luther Head	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	1	4	13.7	14.6	-0.97	15.7	15.2	0.43
Shane Battier	70	72	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.24	4	2	2	14.1	13.8	0.32	15.1	16.6	-1.49
Tracy McGrady	80	82	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	0	6	13.6	16.1	-2.48	15.8	13.9	1.97
Dikembe Mutombo	27	26	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	1	4	14.0	14.0	-0.01	16.2	15.3	0.91
Juwan Howard	32	30	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.24	-8	14	-22	15.6	13.2	2.36	14.5	16.0	-1.52
Kirk Snyder	5	5	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	7	-8	13.8	14.0	-0.22	15.0	15.5	-0.55
Bonzi Wells	10	9	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	12	-18	13.9	14.0	-0.12	17.0	15.4	1.63
Yao Ming	50	50	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.28	3	3	0	13.9	14.1	-0.23	16.8	14.2	2.65

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Price	32	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	17.0	14.8	2.24	13.6	14.2	-0.55
Justin Williams	34	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-5	4	17.0	14.7	2.27	13.8	14.1	-0.33
Francisco Garcia	50	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.30	2	-8	10	16.1	14.9	1.14	13.6	14.4	-0.85
Metta World Peace	86	84	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-4	2	15.3	17.4	-2.16	14.4	11.5	2.94
Brad Miller	61	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-3	0	15.1	16.2	-1.07	14.7	12.9	1.79
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	55	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	3	-12	15.7	15.3	0.35	14.0	14.0	-0.02
Mike Bibby	55	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	3	-12	15.7	15.3	0.35	14.0	14.0	-0.02
Kevin Martin	69	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	1	-8	14.0	19.1	-5.09	13.9	14.3	-0.42
John Salmons	48	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-5	4	15.7	15.4	0.33	13.5	14.5	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.6,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 84, POR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.08,0	91.8%
POR 91, NJN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	91.8%
TOR 106, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	91.8%