NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	82		Excitement	7.0 [442]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +28.7%
Detroit Pistons	87		Comeback	1.7 [740]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -11.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sasha Pavlovic	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	9	74%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Eric Snow	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	71%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.01,-0.05	-0.09	0.02	-0.02	16	47%	0.06	5	-0.11	11	82%	0.04
Drew Gooden	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	11	45%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	13	54%	-0.02	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.29,0.29	0.29	-0.01	0.29	-0.01	10	56%	0.36	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.06
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	12	62%	0.18	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.05
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	9	45%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	15	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	11	46%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.04
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	20	49%	0.01	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.0	27.0	17.8	27.0	3.6	38.5	144.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +20.2%

DET +1.6%

DET +8.3%

DET +20.9%

CLE -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	16.1	17.4	15.4	95.3	101.2	104.5
season	16.0	16.8		103.2	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.6		101.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.3	17.0	16.0	17.5	16.1
DET	15.7	18.2	16.7	19.4	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gibson	14	12	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.05	5	-10	15	17.6	15.8	1.77	16.9	17.5	-0.56
Eric Snow	32	32	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-8	11	17.6	15.2	2.44	18.3	16.8	1.51
Donyell Marshall	13	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	2	-9	14.5	16.4	-1.92	14.9	17.8	-2.88
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	62	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.45	7	-12	19	16.9	13.9	3.02	18.3	15.3	2.98
Drew Gooden	72	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-9	13	16.2	15.5	0.71	17.6	16.0	1.64
Anderson Varejao	25	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	9	-23	14.5	16.7	-2.22	15.8	18.1	-2.28
Sasha Pavlovic	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-4	3	16.2	15.8	0.41	17.5	17.0	0.49
Larry Hughes	64	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	6	-17	15.5	17.8	-2.32	17.1	18.5	-1.44
LeBron James	79	79	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	6	-17	15.6	21.4	-5.81	17.3	18.7	-1.44

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	67	66	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-11	27	16.6	20.3	-3.68	14.8	20.2	-5.42
Richard Hamilton	79	79	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-10	25	17.2	19.9	-2.68	15.5	22.6	-7.05
Chauncey Billups	76	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-7	19	17.2	18.8	-1.59	15.5	20.4	-4.90
Tayshaun Prince	79	79	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-6	17	17.3	18.7	-1.44	15.6	21.4	-5.81
Rasheed Wallace	38	37	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.36	-5	10	-15	18.3	16.7	1.55	17.9	14.8	3.11
Chris Webber	60	61	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	5	-5	17.8	16.3	1.50	16.4	15.3	1.09
Jason Maxiell	7	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	6	-7	16.6	17.5	-0.90	15.9	16.1	-0.24
Carlos Delfino	7	7	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	11	-17	18.7	17.3	1.44	21.4	15.6	5.81
Ronald Murray	10	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	12	-19	18.8	17.2	1.59	20.4	15.5	4.90
Lindsey Hunter	7	7	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	15	-25	19.9	17.2	2.68	22.6	15.5	7.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.61,0.37,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 81, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.68,0.37,0.68,0.72,1	93.8%
MIA 94, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.39,0.34,0.57,0.85,1	91.8%
NOP 80, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.82,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.92,1	91.3%