NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	8.3 [188]		MVP	Chris Quinn (MIA): +24.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	101		Comeback	2.5 [552]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -13.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0.24	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.16	0.03	10	85%	0.30	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	12	58%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.01	19	62%	0.12	4	-0.13	1	0%	-0.01
Alexander Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.06	-0.04	11	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	11	43%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.07
Earl Barron	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	20	39%	-0.03	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.15

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.10	0.00	17	61%	0.21	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.10	-0.02	21	55%	0.22	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	11	71%	0.25	4	-0.09	13	92%	0.06
Darko Milicic	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	3	30%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	8	55%	0.15	4	-0.27	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	27.4	18.4	23.5	1.8	33.2	131.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +15.3%

MEM +29.6%

MEM +20.5%

MIA -17.0%

MEM +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	16.2	15.0	15.4	102.2	108.6	105.7
season	16.0	14.9		99.0	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.4		109.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.4	15.3	15.8	15.3	16.2
MEM	13.7	15.3	14.2	16.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	64	65	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-11	15	15.8	16.9	-1.10	15.3	14.2	1.09
Alexander Johnson	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-7	7	14.9	16.3	-1.42	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Earl Barron	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-3	-1	16.5	16.0	0.55	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Jason Williams	28	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-6	5	16.9	15.8	1.05	14.3	15.3	-0.97
Dwyane Wade	58	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-11	15	15.0	18.2	-3.19	15.6	13.9	1.64
Daequan Cook	60	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	1	-9	16.1	16.3	-0.23	15.2	14.5	0.67
Chris Quinn	57	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	3	-13	16.4	15.7	0.72	15.1	14.8	0.28
Udonis Haslem	75	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	2	-11	16.8	13.2	3.59	15.1	14.6	0.46
Ricky Davis	77	79	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.29	-11	4	-15	16.3	15.4	0.91	14.3	18.6	-4.31

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	74	72	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.20	16	-9	25	15.0	14.7	0.30	16.4	15.1	1.29
Mike Miller	65	65	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-10	27	15.1	14.7	0.33	16.3	15.7	0.60
Mike Conley	67	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-3	13	14.8	15.5	-0.72	16.1	16.2	-0.06
Pau Gasol	88	86	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	1	5	14.9	15.6	-0.66	16.3	14.0	2.31
Darko Milicic	47	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	-2	11	14.7	15.2	-0.47	17.5	14.7	2.75
Juan Carlos Navarro	32	32	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	11	-15	15.8	14.5	1.32	14.9	16.8	-1.98
Kyle Lowry	26	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	10	-13	15.5	14.8	0.72	16.2	16.1	0.06
Casey Jacobsen	34	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	14	-21	14.1	15.5	-1.40	15.5	16.5	-1.06
Stromile Swift	32	32	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.04	-9	16	-25	15.2	14.9	0.27	14.8	16.9	-2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.39,0.34,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 82, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.61,0.37,0.67,0.85,1	91.8%
UTA 82, CHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.76,0.85,1	91.4%
UTA 86, SEA 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.6,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.85,1	91.2%