NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	103		Excitement	7.2 [408]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +60.2%
Sacramento Kings	107		Comeback	19.0 [51]		LVP	Matt Harpring (UTA): -11.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0.22	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.12	0.02	15	71%	0.25	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Jarron Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	15	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.04	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	16	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dee Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07	0.02	-0.09	-0.01	14	59%	0.02	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	10	54%	0.06	3	-0.17	6	67%	-0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.21,0.3,0.6	0.60	0.12	0.48	0.00	7	89%	0.65	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.10
Kevin Martin	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.00	0.05	10	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.06
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.17	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Justin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	83%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.07	-0.01	9	65%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	10%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	12	43%	0.04	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.6	25.4	14.8	27.1	2.5	35.4	131.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +45.3%

SAC +26.5%

UTA -23.2%

UTA -1.8%

SAC +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAC	NBA	UTA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.7	14.4	15.4	110.8	116.3	104.5
season	15.9	14.7		107.4	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.0		106.0	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	13.9	16.7	17.0	19.7	16.7
SAC	15.5	13.3	15.8	13.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	31	30	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.03	8	-12	20	14.8	17.7	-2.92	14.7	14.2	0.49
Deron Williams	33	33	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.00	7	-11	18	15.6	17.3	-1.77	14.9	14.1	0.84
Jarron Collins	15	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-2	0	17.4	16.6	0.81	12.2	14.9	-2.68
Mehmet Okur	74	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-8	12	15.7	20.6	-4.92	15.1	11.6	3.49
Paul Millsap	25	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.14	-15	11	-26	20.8	15.2	5.63	13.5	14.8	-1.31
Carlos Boozer	80	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.47	6	-10	16	16.5	17.8	-1.31	14.7	12.6	2.08
Dee Brown	8	7	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	10	-24	24.6	16.0	8.65	11.4	14.6	-3.22
Derek Fisher	77	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.48	3	-7	10	16.6	17.3	-0.72	14.5	13.8	0.78
Gordan Giricek	68	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	0	-4	16.5	17.4	-0.87	14.3	14.7	-0.45
Matt Harpring	54	53	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.44	-13	9	-22	17.4	15.8	1.59	13.9	15.1	-1.22

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Price	59	60	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.22	25	-21	46	13.1	16.8	-3.67	17.9	14.6	3.32
Corliss Williamson	39	39	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.42	14	-10	24	13.4	15.2	-1.81	18.0	15.8	2.20
John Salmons	48	48	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.36	15	-11	26	13.5	15.4	-1.93	17.6	15.7	1.91
Metta World Peace	75	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-2	8	14.3	14.6	-0.30	16.4	18.3	-1.92
Kevin Martin	63	65	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.47	-7	11	-18	14.8	13.6	1.19	15.4	19.8	-4.44
Francisco Garcia	32	32	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	-2	8	13.6	14.8	-1.19	19.5	15.2	4.29
Justin Williams	53	52	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.24	3	1	2	14.6	14.1	0.52	16.4	17.1	-0.72
Brad Miller	9	9	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.16	-12	16	-28	20.2	13.8	6.45	14.9	16.9	-2.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	53	54	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.03	-10	14	-24	15.2	13.4	1.81	15.8	18.0	-2.20
Mike Bibby	29	29	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.20	-20	24	-44	16.6	13.4	3.19	14.7	17.7	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 74, CHI 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.42,1	89.9%
MIN 91, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.19,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.67,0.74,0.61,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.24,0.73,1	89.7%
BOS 92, DAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.2,0.15,0.32,0.58,1	89.1%