NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	7.8 [271]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +19.1%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	12.2 [200]		LVP	Johnny Newman (DAL): -22.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	15	48%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kedrick Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	13	57%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Eric Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	12	52%	-0.03	1	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.22	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.22,-0.22	-0.05	-0.15	0.01	16	50%	-0.11	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.14,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23	-0.16	-0.07	-0.01	12	38%	-0.01	6	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.14	-0.01	20	57%	0.23	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.01	23	63%	0.20	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.11	0.11	-0.02	0.14	0.01	9	64%	0.19	4	-0.09	7	100%	0.02
Danny Manning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Johnny Newman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.11	0.01	9	40%	-0.09	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.8	26.4	16.4	26.3	1.8	29.2	127.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.8%

BOS -3.3%

DAL +10.3%

DAL +0.0%

BOS -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	12.5	15.6	89.3	94.2	102.3
season	15.0	14.8		100.9	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		105.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.0	12.9	14.6	17.3	15.3
DAL	12.4	10.7	14.2	13.4	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	46	48	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.04	13	-19	32	14.1	16.3	-2.19	12.3	12.7	-0.46
Vitaly Potapenko	20	20	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.04	7	-13	20	12.5	16.0	-3.41	10.6	13.0	-2.40
Walter McCarty	30	31	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	-4	2	15.6	15.2	0.47	12.3	12.6	-0.31
Kedrick Brown	42	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-4	2	15.7	15.0	0.62	11.8	13.1	-1.30
Antoine Walker	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	15.3	15.2	0.12	12.9	11.6	1.23
Tony Battie	70	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.34	-6	0	-6	15.6	14.7	0.84	12.8	12.1	0.70
Erick Strickland	63	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	2	-10	15.0	15.7	-0.69	11.8	13.7	-1.93
Paul Pierce	90	89	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	5	-16	15.7	12.4	3.34	13.0	9.8	3.20
Kenny Anderson	79	78	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.28	-17	11	-28	15.8	13.5	2.35	13.2	10.4	2.82

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	91	90	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.46	14	-8	22	12.7	11.2	1.49	15.8	12.0	3.78
Michael Finley	98	97	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.30	10	-4	14	12.5	13.2	-0.67	15.5	11.3	4.21
Eduardo Najera	60	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	3	0	12.6	12.4	0.18	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Steve Nash	71	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	0	6	12.5	12.6	-0.14	15.4	15.0	0.39
Dirk Nowitzki	96	96	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.35	1	5	-4	12.6	12.2	0.31	15.2	16.7	-1.52
Wang Zhi-zhi	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.13	4	2	2	14.6	11.8	2.83	15.4	15.3	0.13
Danny Manning	51	49	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	7	-8	12.2	12.8	-0.63	15.6	15.1	0.48
Evan Eschmeyer	25	25	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	13	-20	10.2	13.3	-3.08	13.2	16.0	-2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.2,0.15,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 94, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.24,0.58,1	92.5%
ORL 114, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.58,1	91.6%
HOU 94, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.2,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.73,1	91.2%