NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	94		Excitement	6.9 [431]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +24.3%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	14.1 [126]		LVP	George Hill (IND): -24.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	15	61%	0.21	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.06
Lance Stephenson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	65%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Paul George	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.05	0.09	-0.04	0.01	16	62%	0.12	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.03
Roy Hibbert	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
CJ Watson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	0.03	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
George Hill	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.24	-0.03	-0.20	0.00	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.23	-0.00	6	50%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.16	0.01	10	58%	0.23	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	14	69%	0.23	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	25	60%	0.16	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.07	0.00	5	80%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.4	33.4	17.6	31.3	3.5	35.4	149.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.8%

IND -9.9%

IND -4.1%

MIA +30.2%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.2	15.1	100.0	103.2	105.2
season	15.8	15.6		102.7	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.2		105.1	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.0	15.6	18.1	17.2	16.4
MIA	13.8	14.4	13.8	14.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	47	45	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.20	2	-5	7	16.0	16.8	-0.83	14.0	14.4	-0.47
CJ Watson	36	35	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.16	-4	1	-5	14.6	17.6	-3.01	15.2	13.7	1.51
Rasual Butler	26	24	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-5	7	13.9	17.4	-3.50	15.3	13.9	1.43
Luis Scola	31	29	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	0	-3	15.3	17.0	-1.73	14.4	14.2	0.23
Lance Stephenson	80	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.41	-1	-2	1	16.8	13.9	2.92	13.7	17.3	-3.58
George Hill	58	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.57	1	-4	5	17.6	14.6	3.01	13.7	15.2	-1.51
Paul George	82	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	4	-11	16.8	13.8	2.96	14.4	12.9	1.49
David West	68	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.54	-3	0	-3	17.0	14.9	2.06	14.1	14.6	-0.46
Roy Hibbert	42	45	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.58	-2	-1	-1	16.8	16.1	0.71	14.6	13.9	0.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	71	72	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.42	16	-13	29	13.4	16.9	-3.50	17.0	14.5	2.44
Chris Andersen	54	53	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.51	7	-4	11	14.7	13.6	1.04	16.4	16.4	0.04
Chris Bosh	59	61	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.35	8	-5	13	13.6	15.3	-1.69	17.2	14.9	2.27
Ray Allen	51	49	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.54	-1	4	-5	15.9	12.3	3.58	16.1	16.7	-0.57
Dwyane Wade	75	74	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.47	-3	6	-9	13.8	15.8	-2.03	16.3	16.7	-0.43
Rashard Lewis	31	31	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	5	-7	15.5	13.6	1.88	14.0	17.6	-3.65
Shane Battier	31	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	7	-11	12.8	14.9	-2.11	16.8	16.2	0.52
Udonis Haslem	13	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	6	-9	15.6	14.0	1.62	17.6	16.2	1.39
Mario Chalmers	35	38	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	7	-11	13.6	14.6	-1.04	16.8	16.2	0.58
Norris Cole	50	49	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.18	1	2	-1	14.8	13.5	1.32	15.7	17.2	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.24,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 92, DAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.2,0.15,0.32,0.58,1	92.5%
TOR 101, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.58,1	91.3%
MEM 97, MIA 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.26,1	91.2%