NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	116		Excitement	7.9 [287]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +24.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	104		Comeback	2.9 [605]		LVP	Junior Harrington (MEM): -20.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.06	0.19	0.01	14	59%	0.32	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.17
Baron Davis	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	19	69%	0.42	8	-0.25	7	71%	-0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	5	90%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.10	0.00	16	56%	0.21	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	77%	0.12	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	9	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Stephen Jackson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	52%	0.06	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tarence Kinsey	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.02	18	55%	0.18	3	-0.07	15	93%	0.06
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	9	62%	0.18	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	5	69%	0.11	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	-0.05	0.03	10	75%	0.12	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.03
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	15	50%	0.04	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.08,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	7	-0.26	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	2.5	31.4	16.4	26.6	2.4	33.2	141.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +38.6%

GSW +6.0%

MEM -6.2%

GSW +18.8%

MEM -7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MEM	NBA	GSW	MEM	NBA
this game	13.1	14.1	15.4	107.4	100.0	104.5
season	13.5	15.1		105.7	105.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		110.1	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.6	13.3	12.3	15.6	13.1
MEM	13.3	12.8	14.9	15.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	95	90	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.08	22	-10	32	12.8	14.8	-2.01	14.4	12.1	2.36
Andris Biedrins	61	57	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.12	19	-7	26	13.6	12.4	1.19	14.9	13.2	1.65
Monta Ellis	92	91	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	13.5	10.4	3.10	14.4	11.8	2.59
Jason Richardson	84	81	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	2	8	12.8	13.9	-1.03	14.5	12.6	1.93
Stephen Jackson	73	73	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	9	-6	12.6	14.0	-1.33	13.7	15.1	-1.44
Matt Barnes	43	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	9	-6	13.8	12.6	1.19	14.4	14.0	0.42
Mickael Pietrus	40	37	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	10	-8	12.8	13.2	-0.36	12.8	14.8	-1.98
Al Harrington	52	51	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.01	-11	23	-34	12.7	13.5	-0.81	12.8	15.4	-2.57

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexander Johnson	17	17	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-16	20	14.2	14.1	0.14	12.4	13.2	-0.86
Stromile Swift	24	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.14	-9	-3	-6	15.1	13.8	1.26	11.5	13.5	-1.97
Chucky Atkins	45	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.14	-11	-1	-10	14.6	13.7	0.89	12.8	13.3	-0.43
Dahntay Jones	23	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.17	-14	2	-16	14.2	14.1	0.08	14.6	12.7	1.89
Rudy Gay	90	94	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-11	10	14.1	13.9	0.22	12.7	15.3	-2.54
Junior Harrington	68	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-6	0	13.8	14.6	-0.80	13.3	12.6	0.69
Tarence Kinsey	95	98	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-5	-2	14.1	14.6	-0.48	13.0	13.6	-0.58
Hakim Warrick	73	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-6	0	13.9	14.5	-0.62	13.4	12.2	1.26
Pau Gasol	85	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	-2	-8	13.9	14.9	-1.02	13.3	12.1	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.22,0.24,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 97, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.15,0	91.8%
LAC 94, HOU 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.01,0,0	91.7%
LAL 102, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.11,0.01,0,0	91.5%