NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	85		Excitement	4.9 [844]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +22.4%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	1.4 [858]		LVP	Amar'e Stoudemire (PHX): -16.1%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	11	61%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	69%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	14	56%	0.05	6	-0.16	8	87%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	18	32%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.03	0.02	19	35%	-0.13	2	-0.03	5	20%	-0.05

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.05	-0.02	22	60%	0.23	1	-0.01	14	79%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.01	14	63%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.03	17	51%	0.02	1	-0.03	9	22%	-0.08
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	-0.09	11	32%	-0.02	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	4	10%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.17	-0.02	-0.04	6	25%	-0.05	5	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.4	30.5	19.8	31.1	2.7	47.0	162.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.5%

PHX -4.2%

SAS +15.4%

SAS +2.8%

PHX -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAS	NBA	PHX	SAS	NBA
this game	13.7	15.7	15.4	86.7	93.9	104.5
season	13.8	16.2		112.2	107.5
opponent	15.4	16.0		98.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	15.4	15.2	13.8	11.1	13.7
SAS	15.3	19.0	15.5	13.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	41	41	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.18	7	-14	21	13.7	13.7	-0.02	15.5	15.8	-0.35
James Jones	26	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-7	7	14.0	13.6	0.47	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Kurt Thomas	28	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-2	-3	14.1	13.5	0.63	16.5	15.4	1.14
Shawn Marion	72	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-4	1	13.5	14.3	-0.78	15.6	16.0	-0.37
Leandro Barbosa	80	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.15	-8	1	-9	13.7	13.6	0.10	15.6	16.1	-0.57
Raja Bell	88	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	13.6	14.4	-0.79	15.7	15.4	0.27
Steve Nash	77	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.27	-8	1	-9	13.5	14.4	-0.87	16.3	13.3	3.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	78	80	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	8	-23	13.9	13.0	0.87	15.4	16.8	-1.33

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	81	82	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-7	21	16.1	13.6	2.48	13.8	13.1	0.68
Michael Finley	86	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.27	9	-2	11	15.8	15.2	0.51	13.1	17.5	-4.34
Tim Duncan	71	72	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	3	1	16.4	13.7	2.70	13.5	14.2	-0.73
Francisco Elson	53	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-5	17	15.9	15.4	0.50	14.5	12.8	1.69
Bruce Bowen	75	75	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	1	5	16.4	13.4	2.95	14.0	12.6	1.42
Fabricio Oberto	44	44	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	1	5	14.7	16.5	-1.88	13.8	13.6	0.27
Manu Ginobili	51	52	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	12	-17	13.9	17.7	-3.82	13.2	14.3	-1.07
Matt Bonner	6	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	9	-11	15.5	15.7	-0.21	16.8	13.5	3.34
Jacque Vaughn	23	21	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	16	-25	15.0	15.9	-0.96	13.1	13.8	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 71, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MIL 80, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CHA 92, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%