NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	115		Excitement	4.2 [971]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +17.1%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.0 [1218]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -7.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.16	0.00	0.08	24	58%	0.08	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
John Salmons	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Justin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	5	73%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.08	-0.03	0.07	17	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	13	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Ronnie Price	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	17	39%	-0.02	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.17	0.17	0.20	0.01	0.04	13	72%	0.19	1	-0.02	13	77%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	20	60%	0.14	3	-0.05	12	83%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	59%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	7	56%	0.07	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	13	48%	0.03	4	-0.05	7	57%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	3.7	31.4	17.6	28.4	3.0	41.2	148.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.5%

DEN +11.6%

DEN +12.7%

SAC -6.2%

SAC -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.7	13.8	15.4	109.5	114.3	104.5
season	14.7	14.0		104.7	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		104.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.3	15.2	17.4	9.1	13.7
DEN	12.4	13.0	15.4	14.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	81	82	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.48	9	-14	23	12.7	16.8	-4.09	14.3	11.8	2.52
Justin Williams	54	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-1	-3	12.1	15.4	-3.30	14.0	13.5	0.50
Ronnie Price	21	20	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	2	-9	14.3	13.5	0.82	8.8	14.9	-6.06
Kevin Martin	89	88	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-7	9	13.5	14.8	-1.34	13.2	16.7	-3.52
John Salmons	33	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	4	-13	15.0	13.1	1.93	14.8	13.2	1.60
Brad Miller	47	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	4	-13	16.0	11.8	4.28	14.4	13.2	1.26
Metta World Peace	89	89	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.46	6	-11	17	13.0	17.6	-4.58	14.3	10.7	3.62
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	58	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	5	-15	16.3	10.5	5.77	13.7	13.8	-0.14
Francisco Garcia	53	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-2	-1	12.2	15.1	-2.89	13.3	14.2	-0.93

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Iverson	94	94	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	-3	11	13.2	18.5	-5.25	13.7	13.5	0.25
Linas Kleiza	51	52	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.02	16	-11	27	13.5	13.9	-0.40	14.7	12.7	2.05
J.R. Smith	44	44	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.03	16	-11	27	14.2	13.4	0.74	15.8	12.1	3.73
Carmelo Anthony	78	79	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	5	-5	13.5	14.4	-0.93	13.7	13.6	0.13
Marcus Camby	79	79	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	4	-3	12.9	16.2	-3.29	13.1	15.3	-2.22
Reggie Evans	28	26	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	0	5	15.4	13.1	2.29	15.8	13.0	2.88
Nene	79	79	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.42	-7	12	-19	14.3	12.0	2.38	12.8	16.3	-3.55
Steve Blake	72	72	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.46	-14	19	-33	14.2	12.8	1.45	12.3	16.6	-4.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
LAL 80, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
PHI 91, SAS 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.82,0.83,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%