NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	91		Excitement	2.7 [1225]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +15.1%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	1.0 [1307]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -6.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.15	0.00	0.04	10	77%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.03	13	68%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	16	44%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mouhamed Sene	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.04	6	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	6	53%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Mickael Gelabale	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	40%	0.00	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	9	100%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	8	73%	0.13	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	7	81%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	9	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	4	92%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	1	75%	0.01	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
James White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Jackie Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	56%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	6	17%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	10	36%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	100%	0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	27.5	16.4	27.3	2.5	28.6	130.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.4%

SEA -1.8%

SAS +3.3%

SAS +1.7%

SAS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.4	16.7	15.4	107.1	131.0	104.5
season	15.4	16.2		105.5	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.4		98.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	20.5	17.3	16.6	15.3	17.4
SAS	13.8	17.9	16.9	18.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mouhamed Sene	21	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-26	33	15.3	18.1	-2.78	18.1	16.1	1.95
Mike Wilks	24	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-22	25	14.9	18.4	-3.49	18.2	16.0	2.20
Mickael Gelabale	35	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-24	29	16.8	17.9	-1.11	17.2	16.2	0.99
Johan Petro	50	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-17	15	16.3	19.0	-2.68	17.5	15.5	1.97
Damien Wilkins	55	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-21	23	17.4	17.4	-0.02	16.7	16.6	0.13
Earl Watson	41	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	-3	-13	17.5	17.3	0.22	17.0	16.4	0.64
Chris Wilcox	52	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	-4	-11	19.1	14.8	4.21	15.9	17.8	-1.82
Luke Ridnour	45	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.23	-22	3	-25	18.2	16.6	1.56	15.9	17.4	-1.53
Nick Collison	47	47	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.34	-28	9	-37	17.7	17.1	0.67	15.9	17.6	-1.73
Rashard Lewis	55	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.31	-29	10	-39	18.3	15.9	2.35	15.8	18.0	-2.18

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	48	48	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.26	28	-9	37	15.3	18.4	-3.13	19.1	15.2	3.91
Tony Parker	44	45	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.28	28	-9	37	15.3	18.1	-2.81	19.4	15.2	4.25
Bruce Bowen	50	50	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.24	26	-7	33	15.7	18.1	-2.46	18.8	15.5	3.34
Manu Ginobili	37	39	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.27	22	-3	25	16.5	16.8	-0.25	17.6	17.2	0.40
Fabricio Oberto	44	45	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.18	18	1	17	17.4	15.8	1.58	17.8	17.0	0.71
Matt Bonner	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	18	-17	17.8	15.5	2.26	15.6	19.2	-3.61
Michael Finley	42	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	22	-25	17.7	15.6	2.12	17.5	17.3	0.18
Beno Udrih	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.13	-4	23	-27	18.2	15.9	2.29	14.6	18.8	-4.20
James White	22	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	26	-33	18.1	16.1	1.95	15.3	18.1	-2.78
Jackie Butler	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	23	-27	15.7	16.8	-1.06	12.9	18.1	-5.19
Jacque Vaughn	29	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.09	-5	24	-29	16.5	16.7	-0.26	15.8	18.3	-2.53
Francisco Elson	22	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	24	-29	16.4	16.7	-0.33	18.7	16.9	1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 93, SEA 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
NYK 70, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
TOR 99, OKC 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%