NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	7.8 [295]		MVP	Carlos Delfino (DET): +16.9%
Detroit Pistons	94		Comeback	8.9 [263]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -27.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.01	9	91%	0.24	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.03	2	83%	0.13	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07
Eddie Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	0.01	-0.08	0.00	9	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.06,-0.01,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.09	0.01	13	62%	0.02	5	-0.13	11	45%	-0.09
James Posey	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.14	-0.01	10	45%	-0.14	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	-0.28	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28	-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	21	33%	-0.20	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.07

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	0.00	6	75%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.06	0.02	11	66%	0.22	3	-0.14	7	100%	0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.08	0.01	14	55%	0.17	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	13	54%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	9	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	0.02	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.8	30.6	17.7	26.9	3.0	42.2	150.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +60.8%

DET +10.6%

MIA -12.5%

MIA -8.9%

MIA -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	16.3	15.4	100.0	105.6	104.5
season	16.0	16.8		102.4	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.6		101.7	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	16.8	18.7	15.1	16.2
DET	18.0	15.3	17.3	14.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	20	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.13	-7	1	-8	18.2	15.7	2.52	17.5	15.9	1.56
Eddie Jones	73	72	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.31	6	-12	18	16.2	16.3	-0.02	16.5	15.4	1.16
Jason Williams	71	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.40	6	-12	18	15.7	18.5	-2.75	16.0	17.6	-1.67
Gary Payton	25	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	7	-20	18.0	15.6	2.39	15.8	16.5	-0.74
Antoine Walker	33	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	5	-16	16.2	16.3	-0.11	16.4	16.2	0.21
Shaquille O'Neal	67	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-9	12	15.9	17.5	-1.67	16.6	15.4	1.21
Udonis Haslem	81	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-1	-4	16.4	14.6	1.82	16.0	19.1	-3.11
James Posey	70	73	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.40	-9	3	-12	15.9	17.7	-1.85	16.2	16.7	-0.48

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	69	68	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-7	20	16.2	16.4	-0.20	16.2	16.5	-0.32
Richard Hamilton	60	58	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.54	8	-2	10	16.2	16.4	-0.23	15.8	17.1	-1.24
Antonio McDyess	43	42	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-5	16	16.3	16.3	0.02	16.3	16.2	0.02
Chauncey Billups	62	62	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	5	-4	17.0	14.8	2.17	17.0	14.5	2.54
Tayshaun Prince	57	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	6	-6	17.1	14.9	2.16	16.8	15.2	1.68
Carlos Delfino	32	31	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	0	6	14.9	17.1	-2.16	15.2	16.8	-1.68
Dale Davis	13	13	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.27	-3	9	-12	13.6	16.7	-3.13	15.9	16.3	-0.38
Ronald Murray	44	44	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.16	9	-3	12	15.2	17.4	-2.24	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Lindsey Hunter	14	13	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	10	-14	15.2	16.5	-1.28	14.8	16.5	-1.65
Chris Webber	48	48	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	12	-18	17.3	15.1	2.17	16.5	16.0	0.50
Jason Maxiell	3	4	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.08	-5	11	-16	22.3	16.1	6.25	18.7	16.1	2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.31,0.47,0.73,0.61,0.52,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 78, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.77,0.96,1	90.8%
MIL 88, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.16,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.53,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	90.5%
UTA 93, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.71,0.69,0.91,1	90.4%