NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	93		Excitement	6.3 [567]		MVP	Kyle Korver (PHI): +21.5%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	10.5 [27]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): -14.9%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22	0.07	0.14	0.00	12	59%	0.21	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.01	8	53%	0.12	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Carney	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	80%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Willie Green	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.01	9	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	6	71%	0.08	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Steven Hunter	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	5	47%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
Andre Iguodala	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	14	49%	0.05	4	-0.07	11	73%	0.02
Lou Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	0.01	0.04	10	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	11	58%	0.17	6	-0.12	9	22%	-0.10
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	9	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	12	42%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	19	49%	-0.01	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	12	39%	-0.05	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	30.3	14.8	32.0	2.5	36.6	143.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +34.2%

PHI +13.7%

MIA -3.6%

PHI +4.9%

PHI +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	17.2	15.4	104.5	95.5	104.5
season	15.5	16.0		101.7	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	16.8	16.3	14.1	13.4	15.1
MIA	15.2	17.2	17.8	18.7	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	44	44	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-1	10	14.7	15.5	-0.78	17.2	17.3	-0.06
Andre Iguodala	86	85	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-4	16	14.9	22.7	-7.81	17.3	16.5	0.77
Joe Smith	65	64	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.30	9	-1	10	14.8	16.0	-1.26	17.5	16.7	0.77
Andre Miller	70	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	9	-10	15.1	15.2	-0.04	16.9	18.3	-1.37
Lou Williams	19	20	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	-1	10	15.2	15.1	0.04	18.3	16.9	1.37
Rodney Carney	18	17	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	6	-4	14.2	15.4	-1.20	15.4	17.7	-2.33
Samuel Dalembert	29	30	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.05	6	2	4	14.8	15.3	-0.54	17.5	17.1	0.40
Steven Hunter	66	68	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	12	-16	16.1	12.3	3.74	17.6	16.0	1.56
Willie Green	48	48	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	10	-12	15.7	14.5	1.18	16.9	17.6	-0.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	10	10	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-11	14	17.5	17.2	0.30	15.3	15.1	0.20
Gary Payton	14	13	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.11	-3	-5	2	17.1	17.3	-0.20	16.5	14.9	1.66
Udonis Haslem	63	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-2	-4	16.3	19.6	-3.31	15.0	15.5	-0.51
Dorell Wright	33	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-1	-6	17.5	17.1	0.35	15.4	15.0	0.43
Eddie Jones	67	70	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.26	4	-12	16	17.3	17.0	0.37	15.5	13.9	1.56
Shaquille O'Neal	61	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-9	10	17.8	16.0	1.80	15.5	14.4	1.12
Jason Williams	80	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	-1	-6	17.2	17.4	-0.23	14.9	17.1	-2.21
Antoine Walker	43	44	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.21	-14	6	-20	17.9	16.6	1.34	15.2	15.1	0.07
James Posey	74	72	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	3	-14	17.0	18.3	-1.24	14.5	17.9	-3.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.7,0.81,0.87,0.74,0.57,0.71,0.57,0.37,0.59,0.35,0.22,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, BOS 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.84,0.72,0.66,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.02,0	92.4%
SAC 89, PHX 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.47,0.36,0.18,0.38,0.16,0.15,0.02,0	91.7%
CLE 84, UTA 71	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.2,0.05,0,0,0	91.5%