NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	11.3 [33]		MVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): +79.1%
Chicago Bulls	109		Comeback	18.8 [82]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -19.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0.46	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.46	0.10	0.36	0.01	18	69%	0.62	5	-0.16	9	89%	0.05
Nene	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,0.08	-0.00	0.09	0.02	9	78%	0.35	7	-0.28	5	80%	0.08
Linas Kleiza	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.23,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	-0.00	10	60%	0.23	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,-0.05	0.07	-0.10	0.02	19	60%	0.14	2	-0.19	9	89%	0.02
Marcus Camby	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,0.79	0.79	-0.02	0.81	-0.00	9	45%	0.83	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.15	0.01	20	51%	0.20	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.05
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	55%	0.01	4	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.13	-0.01	23	46%	-0.05	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.1,-0.2	-0.20	0.05	-0.25	0.01	23	51%	-0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	26.2	18.4	27.5	2.3	35.0	138.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -1.8%

DEN -40.4%

CHI +38.0%

CHI +55.8%

DEN -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	15.0	14.3	15.4	110.2	110.1	104.5
season	14.0	14.5		105.8	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.1	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	15.6	14.1	15.4	15.0
CHI	13.6	13.2	16.5	14.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	56	56	0.36	-0.86	1.22	-0.02	13	-14	27	14.3	15.8	-1.47	14.9	13.5	1.35
J.R. Smith	23	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	3	-7	15.1	14.9	0.21	12.8	14.7	-1.90
Linas Kleiza	44	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	10	-21	15.4	14.6	0.72	13.9	14.7	-0.80
Allen Iverson	83	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.50	2	-3	5	14.9	15.4	-0.51	14.4	13.5	0.95
Nene	77	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.51	2	-3	5	15.1	14.4	0.75	14.3	14.3	-0.10
Carmelo Anthony	82	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.50	0	-1	1	14.7	16.6	-1.90	14.5	13.4	1.12
Eduardo Najera	49	48	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.27	-9	8	-17	14.8	15.1	-0.31	14.0	14.5	-0.45
Steve Blake	76	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.63	2	-3	5	15.5	13.1	2.42	14.3	14.0	0.29

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	72	72	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-7	15	13.9	15.2	-1.25	15.5	13.4	2.10
Luol Deng	81	80	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.56	6	-5	11	14.2	14.6	-0.35	15.0	14.6	0.44
Ben Gordon	83	83	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.68	1	0	1	14.3	14.0	0.33	14.5	17.6	-3.11
Tyrus Thomas	43	43	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.46	7	-6	13	14.2	14.3	-0.07	14.0	15.7	-1.73
P.J. Brown	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.58	-7	8	-15	14.3	14.3	-0.03	15.4	13.7	1.69
Malik Allen	17	16	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	-11	23	13.2	14.5	-1.32	17.1	14.5	2.58
Adrian Griffin	23	23	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.12	-4	5	-9	14.7	14.2	0.49	15.9	14.7	1.23
Ben Wallace	61	60	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.09	-11	12	-23	14.6	13.8	0.74	14.1	16.4	-2.29
Chris Duhon	43	41	-0.51	1.00	-1.51	-0.30	-7	8	-15	14.7	13.9	0.83	15.0	15.0	-0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.63,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 93, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.43,0.85,1	91.2%
CHA 96, MIA 100	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.27,0.36,0.22,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.58,1	91.1%
NYK 91, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	90.0%