NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	108		Excitement	3.9 [1034]		MVP	Juan Dixon (TOR): +8.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.1 [506]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -6.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Dixon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	2	86%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Morris Peterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	18	56%	0.06	2	-0.03	9	78%	-0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Uros Slokar	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	14	58%	0.07	4	-0.08	5	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	-0.06	15	39%	0.02	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.05	18	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Reiner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lynn Greer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	18	60%	0.10	7	-0.13	12	83%	0.03
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	15	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	54%	0.02	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.4	30.4	15.4	28.3	2.6	31.4	132.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.2%

MIL -4.4%

TOR +7.9%

TOR +14.6%

MIL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.1	15.4	114.9	100.0	104.5
season	15.2	15.2		104.7	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.9	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.5	15.3	17.5	17.6	15.7
MIL	15.7	16.7	13.0	15.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	74	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.10	20	-5	25	15.5	16.1	-0.56	15.6	13.1	2.52
Andrea Bargnani	62	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	1	13	14.7	17.5	-2.79	14.3	16.6	-2.27
Juan Dixon	53	53	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.04	14	1	13	14.8	16.8	-2.07	14.1	16.5	-2.47
Anthony Parker	67	66	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	9	-3	16.1	14.5	1.60	15.8	13.6	2.23
T.J. Ford	56	56	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	9	-3	16.0	15.1	0.89	15.4	14.7	0.73
Jose Calderon	38	37	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	6	3	15.1	16.0	-0.89	14.7	15.4	-0.73
Morris Peterson	43	42	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	10	-5	14.9	16.3	-1.43	14.9	15.4	-0.52
Jorge Garbajosa	24	24	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	13	-11	17.5	15.0	2.47	16.2	14.8	1.38
Kris Humphries	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	12	-9	15.6	15.7	-0.07	12.9	15.4	-2.49
Rasho Nesterovic	42	42	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.21	-7	22	-29	17.3	14.3	2.94	15.9	14.5	1.39
Joey Graham	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	12	-9	22.0	15.6	6.41	16.0	15.1	0.87
Uros Slokar	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	12	-9	22.0	15.6	6.41	16.0	15.1	0.87

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Reiner	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	16.0	15.1	0.87	22.0	15.6	6.41
Ersan Ilyasova	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	16.0	15.1	0.87	22.0	15.6	6.41
David Noel	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-12	9	16.0	15.1	0.87	22.0	15.6	6.41
Lynn Greer	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-12	9	18.9	14.8	4.02	15.9	15.6	0.21
Charlie Villanueva	21	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-5	-5	14.3	15.4	-1.04	13.3	16.4	-3.06
Andrew Bogut	66	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-10	5	15.7	13.7	2.02	16.5	13.6	2.87
Brian Skinner	47	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-7	-1	15.3	15.0	0.36	16.4	14.9	1.55
Ruben Patterson	59	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-8	1	14.7	15.9	-1.17	14.6	17.5	-2.88
Mo Williams	86	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-5	-5	14.8	18.9	-4.02	15.6	15.9	-0.21
Charlie Bell	86	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	-3	-9	14.8	18.9	-4.02	15.6	15.9	-0.21
Michael Redd	90	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.03	-15	0	-15	15.3	9.0	6.34	15.7	14.7	0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.11,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.7%
ATL 106, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	95.7%
ORL 109, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0	95.5%