NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	7.9 [278]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +30.5%
Sacramento Kings	93		Comeback	1.6 [814]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -14.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.14	0.01	16	74%	0.41	3	-0.11	10	80%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	6	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	4	87%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.06	-0.01	17	37%	0.04	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.05
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	12	47%	-0.03	1	-0.06	10	60%	-0.07
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	9	39%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.02	3	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	0.00	13	68%	0.17	2	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0,0,-0.01,0	0.00	-0.08	0.09	0.02	14	39%	0.08	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	20	55%	0.14	4	-0.17	7	71%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	67%	0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	10	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	6	47%	-0.05	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.5	31.2	18.8	27.2	2.6	39.0	147.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +8.7%

SAC -4.5%

SAS +13.1%

SAS +33.8%

SAC -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	16.4	13.7	15.4	104.2	97.9	104.5
season	16.2	14.7		107.5	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.0	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.3	17.0	19.6	15.2	16.4
SAC	15.7	15.0	12.2	12.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	73	75	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-6	19	16.7	15.6	1.10	13.4	14.7	-1.34
Manu Ginobili	61	60	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-8	23	16.0	17.3	-1.36	13.1	14.7	-1.66
Bruce Bowen	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	3	1	17.0	15.1	1.84	13.7	13.6	0.14
Matt Bonner	34	35	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	15.4	17.0	-1.60	11.9	14.7	-2.82
Tony Parker	65	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	6	-5	16.5	16.3	0.23	13.4	14.4	-1.03
Jacque Vaughn	31	30	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	1	5	16.3	16.5	-0.23	14.4	13.4	1.03
Fabricio Oberto	41	36	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.12	5	2	3	15.8	16.9	-1.12	15.6	12.5	3.13
Francisco Elson	23	25	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	11	-15	16.3	16.5	-0.13	13.0	13.9	-0.89
Brent Barry	31	31	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	8	-9	16.5	16.4	0.10	14.1	13.5	0.55
Michael Finley	32	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	11	-15	16.2	16.6	-0.39	14.4	13.3	1.08
Robert Horry	21	19	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	13	-19	18.6	15.9	2.72	15.3	13.3	1.96

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	43	44	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.03	5	-12	17	13.3	14.1	-0.80	15.3	17.4	-2.13
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	32	33	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.04	4	-11	15	15.5	12.8	2.77	16.8	16.3	0.52
Ronnie Price	10	10	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.03	1	-8	9	17.0	13.3	3.69	18.0	16.3	1.73
Kenny Thomas	39	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-3	-1	13.6	13.8	-0.22	17.3	15.9	1.42
Corliss Williamson	53	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-5	3	13.9	13.5	0.43	16.1	16.9	-0.73
John Salmons	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	0	-7	13.8	13.5	0.28	16.6	16.0	0.57
Kevin Martin	87	88	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	2	-11	13.5	16.0	-2.52	16.7	13.6	3.08
Brad Miller	61	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	1	-9	13.4	14.2	-0.84	16.5	16.3	0.17
Mike Bibby	76	75	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.32	-15	8	-23	13.1	16.1	-3.01	16.1	17.8	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.54,0.22,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.61,0.37,0.22,0.04,0	92.7%
DAL 110, WAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.24,0.02,0	92.3%
MEM 102, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.3,0.53,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.05,0	92.1%