NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	74		Excitement	4.2 [984]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +32.4%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.0 [1284]		LVP	Keyon Dooling (ORL): -11.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.16	0.01	0.03	8	88%	0.20	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	5	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	15	55%	0.06	3	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.04
Bo Outlaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	9	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.23	0.12	0.03	19	74%	0.32	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	8	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	14	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.08	6	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	4	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	-0.04	11	36%	-0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.5	31.3	16.5	25.8	2.0	29.0	133.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.7%

ORL -1.1%

SAS +5.2%

SAS +19.3%

ORL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.4	16.3	15.4	83.1	112.6	104.5
season	15.9	16.2		103.4	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		98.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.5	14.3	15.8	18.1	16.4
SAS	14.4	17.0	17.8	16.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	15	14	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.06	0	-24	24	13.7	16.9	-3.20	18.4	15.9	2.41
Pat Garrity	9	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-23	22	12.4	16.8	-4.39	19.1	16.0	3.13
Keith Bogans	47	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.14	2	-26	28	16.5	16.3	0.20	16.7	16.0	0.74
Hedo Turkoglu	55	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-19	14	16.8	15.8	0.97	16.6	15.8	0.77
Dwight Howard	63	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-16	8	17.5	13.6	3.92	16.1	16.8	-0.73
Jameer Nelson	58	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-19	14	16.3	16.6	-0.29	16.7	15.7	0.92
Carlos Arroyo	31	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.26	-19	-5	-14	16.6	16.3	0.29	15.7	16.7	-0.92
Darko Milicic	62	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.19	-18	-6	-12	17.0	15.0	1.95	15.7	17.7	-1.93
JJ Redick	42	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.17	-20	-4	-16	15.6	17.1	-1.47	16.4	16.2	0.20
Keyon Dooling	37	36	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.31	-25	1	-26	16.3	16.5	-0.16	15.1	17.2	-2.04
Trevor Ariza	26	26	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.12	-21	-3	-18	15.5	16.7	-1.21	16.3	16.3	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	43	43	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.15	23	1	22	16.5	16.2	0.35	15.8	17.0	-1.17
Jacque Vaughn	34	35	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.28	26	-2	28	15.9	16.6	-0.64	16.5	16.3	0.20
Manu Ginobili	48	52	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.13	20	4	16	16.4	16.2	0.19	15.8	17.2	-1.45
Fabricio Oberto	34	35	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.40	28	-4	32	16.0	16.5	-0.50	17.1	15.9	1.14
Robert Horry	25	25	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	12	0	16.2	16.4	-0.19	14.5	17.1	-2.66
Tim Duncan	59	62	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.12	9	15	-6	16.2	16.6	-0.40	17.5	13.9	3.59
Francisco Elson	28	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	23	-22	15.5	16.7	-1.18	18.4	15.4	2.95
Bruce Bowen	46	48	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	25	-26	16.3	16.4	-0.06	16.5	16.2	0.28
Tony Parker	53	54	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	26	-28	16.6	15.9	0.64	16.3	16.5	-0.20
Brent Barry	41	41	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	22	-20	16.4	16.3	0.11	17.1	15.8	1.26
Matt Bonner	18	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	25	-26	17.6	16.0	1.54	12.4	17.3	-4.90
Beno Udrih	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	17.8	16.2	1.61	13.6	16.6	-2.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, DET 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.81,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	95.4%
PHX 88, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
CLE 83, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%