NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	2.5 [1255]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +10.8%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	1.0 [1297]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -6.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	10	50%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	5	45%	0.02	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	0.00	0.08	12	71%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.09	0.00	0.09	6	72%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	6	75%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.06	9	52%	-0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.05	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.02	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.00	-0.06	15	66%	0.13	4	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.03	8	74%	0.09	1	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.05	7	82%	0.09	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.17	0.00	0.11	17	72%	0.09	3	-0.03	9	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	13	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.4	32.2	20.0	33.2	3.7	32.0	153.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +40.4%

DAL +6.1%

DAL +0.4%

DAL +2.3%

DAL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.1	15.4	107.5	117.9	104.5
season	16.0	16.3		102.4	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.3	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	18.5	19.1	10.3	15.5
DAL	13.1	12.8	16.9	17.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	13	13	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-11	10	15.1	15.6	-0.52	13.5	15.4	-1.83
Dorell Wright	27	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.47	16	-28	44	10.7	17.5	-6.85	16.8	14.4	2.37
Chris Quinn	28	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.41	14	-26	40	11.0	17.5	-6.43	17.3	14.2	3.16
Michael Doleac	27	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.36	12	-24	36	10.7	17.5	-6.85	16.8	14.4	2.37
Antoine Walker	18	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-9	6	16.0	15.4	0.59	14.3	15.3	-1.03
Eddie Jones	58	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-14	16	13.6	18.8	-5.20	15.8	13.9	1.83
Gary Payton	34	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-2	-8	18.1	14.1	4.04	14.7	15.3	-0.59
James Posey	64	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-6	0	14.2	18.4	-4.14	14.9	15.7	-0.78
Jason Kapono	45	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.13	-19	7	-26	18.0	13.2	4.88	14.5	15.7	-1.11
Jason Williams	60	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.22	-22	10	-32	17.5	11.8	5.70	14.2	16.7	-2.58
Shaquille O'Neal	47	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	4	-20	18.1	12.9	5.17	14.3	16.0	-1.71
Udonis Haslem	44	44	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.36	-27	15	-42	18.7	12.7	6.03	14.9	15.3	-0.39

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	69	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.09	19	-7	26	15.0	15.4	-0.42	16.5	12.8	3.67
Devin Harris	58	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.24	22	-10	32	14.9	15.5	-0.61	15.1	16.2	-1.07
Jerry Stackhouse	51	49	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.42	26	-14	40	14.3	16.1	-1.77	15.0	16.1	-1.16
DeSagana Diop	43	41	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	5	2	14.1	16.0	-1.91	16.7	14.6	2.11
Dirk Nowitzki	73	72	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	1	10	15.2	14.9	0.27	15.6	15.2	0.37
Austin Croshere	41	38	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.18	2	10	-8	14.6	15.5	-0.93	14.6	16.2	-1.60
Josh Howard	49	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	5	2	14.1	16.2	-2.05	17.1	13.7	3.32
Erick Dampier	27	29	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	8	-4	18.2	13.9	4.34	15.8	15.4	0.44
Greg Buckner	49	45	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.57	-16	28	-44	15.9	14.2	1.70	14.3	16.7	-2.36
Jose Juan Barea	6	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	20	-28	17.5	15.0	2.54	11.6	15.7	-4.15
Maurice Ager	9	9	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.41	-14	26	-40	19.1	14.7	4.41	10.3	16.1	-5.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 96, POR 127	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
LAL 86, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
LAC 73, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%