NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Excitement	4.7 [888]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +24.5%
Washington Wizards	112		Comeback	1.0 [980]		LVP	Rashad McCants (MIN): -7.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	17	58%	0.14	3	-0.06	11	91%	0.04
Randy Foye	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	18	60%	0.09	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Mike James	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.07	10	62%	0.02	0	0.00	12	83%	-0.01
Mark Blount	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	11	42%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Craig Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	2	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.24	0.15	0.06	-0.03	24	60%	0.27	2	-0.02	15	87%	0.06
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.19	0.07	0.02	11	85%	0.24	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	87%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	4	25%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	56%	0.02	3	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	30.9	15.0	27.1	2.4	40.7	142.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +39.6%

MIN -3.3%

WAS +2.0%

WAS +8.0%

WAS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	WAS	NBA	MIN	WAS	NBA
this game	13.7	15.1	15.4	100.0	112.0	104.5
season	15.4	14.8		101.9	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		108.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.3	15.2	15.6	10.0	13.7
WAS	13.9	14.2	16.5	16.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	14	14	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-16	20	14.4	13.5	0.88	16.5	14.9	1.59
Marko Jaric	35	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-13	14	13.9	13.6	0.33	15.5	14.9	0.62
Mike James	46	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-7	2	11.7	15.4	-3.70	16.1	14.3	1.73
Trenton Hassell	77	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-4	-4	14.1	12.1	2.06	14.8	16.4	-1.64
Mark Madsen	22	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-2	-8	12.8	13.9	-1.15	15.0	15.2	-0.10
Rashad McCants	22	21	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-2	-8	12.7	13.9	-1.21	14.9	15.2	-0.35
Randy Foye	61	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-3	-6	14.3	12.7	1.52	14.0	16.9	-2.86
Ricky Davis	71	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-5	-2	13.3	14.6	-1.29	15.5	14.1	1.42
Kevin Garnett	86	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-6	0	13.7	13.7	-0.05	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Mark Blount	66	64	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	14.7	11.6	3.07	15.1	15.1	0.03

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	81	79	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-3	18	14.5	17.7	-3.15	13.9	12.7	1.21
Gilbert Arenas	93	92	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.11	12	0	12	15.1	16.0	-0.94	13.5	15.1	-1.58
Andray Blatche	55	54	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.11	16	-4	20	14.4	16.0	-1.62	14.1	13.1	1.04
Brendan Haywood	45	44	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.02	8	4	4	14.8	15.4	-0.68	15.5	12.2	3.35
Jarvis Hayes	29	31	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	5	2	14.9	15.2	-0.28	14.1	13.5	0.62
Caron Butler	71	69	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	7	-2	15.2	14.9	0.28	13.5	14.1	-0.62
Darius Songaila	32	34	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.15	2	10	-8	16.1	14.7	1.42	13.8	13.6	0.19
Etan Thomas	46	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	12	-12	15.8	14.6	1.21	13.2	14.1	-0.90
Antonio Daniels	33	34	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	15	-18	16.0	14.7	1.30	11.0	15.0	-4.00
Michael Ruffin	15	16	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	14	-16	16.6	14.9	1.73	13.1	13.8	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.8,0.75,0.69,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 87, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
SAC 85, LAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%
MEM 89, NJN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.9%