NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	6.1 [612]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +17.6%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	1.7 [531]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -13.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.02	-0.02	16	76%	0.22	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Francisco Elson	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	7	79%	0.14	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	10	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	11	45%	-0.09
Bruce Bowen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	9	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	19	45%	-0.06	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.05	0.02	4	120%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	11	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.01	19	58%	0.17	6	-0.15	7	71%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	3	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.5	33.2	18.4	26.6	3.7	37.3	148.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.1%

MIA +15.6%

MIA +0.7%

SAS -3.5%

MIA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	16.2	15.4	98.8	112.4	104.5
season	16.2	16.0		107.5	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.4		104.3	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	15.3	20.1	15.6	16.7
MIA	18.3	17.3	15.1	14.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	13	14	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-16	17	19.2	16.2	2.92	17.6	16.0	1.57
Francisco Elson	34	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-13	11	18.6	15.4	3.12	17.9	15.2	2.65
Fabricio Oberto	33	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	-10	5	17.1	16.4	0.68	17.0	15.8	1.18
Robert Horry	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-16	17	18.5	16.0	2.53	15.3	16.6	-1.33
Manu Ginobili	53	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-10	5	16.4	17.1	-0.72	16.1	16.6	-0.52
Bruce Bowen	63	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-11	7	16.3	17.7	-1.33	16.1	16.6	-0.42
Brent Barry	33	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-5	-5	17.1	16.4	0.72	17.1	15.8	1.27
Michael Finley	36	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	2	-19	15.1	17.8	-2.74	15.3	17.0	-1.67
Tony Parker	73	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	1	-17	16.2	19.2	-2.92	16.0	17.6	-1.57
Tim Duncan	68	72	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.01	-18	3	-21	16.1	19.0	-2.94	15.8	18.0	-2.17

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	52	50	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.12	16	-1	17	15.2	17.7	-2.49	16.4	17.0	-0.61
Antoine Walker	40	41	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	6	3	16.4	16.1	0.32	16.0	17.3	-1.38
Eddie Jones	50	48	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	4	7	14.5	18.4	-3.90	16.1	17.4	-1.24
Udonis Haslem	64	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	4	7	15.7	17.6	-1.83	16.3	17.5	-1.13
Dwyane Wade	76	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	6	3	16.2	16.6	-0.43	17.0	14.9	2.04
Gary Payton	49	47	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	7	1	17.1	15.1	1.99	16.5	16.9	-0.45
Shaquille O'Neal	45	45	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	5	5	17.4	15.1	2.33	16.9	16.4	0.50
Alonzo Mourning	23	22	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	18	-21	17.0	16.0	1.02	19.3	15.8	3.55
Jason Kapono	46	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.15	4	11	-7	17.5	14.9	2.55	16.9	16.5	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.56,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 77, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.59,0.69,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.93,0.99,0.98,1,1	93.7%
WAS 101, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%
NYK 99, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.7,0.74,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.97,1,1	93.5%