NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	5.5 [730]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +15.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	90		Comeback	1.2 [880]		LVP	Mike Miller (MEM): -18.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	26	55%	0.18	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.04
Shane Battier	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.01	9	78%	0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	8	69%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Charles Hayes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	18	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lawrence Roberts	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	6	71%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Conroy	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	28	48%	0.02	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	0.04	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	9	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	17	32%	-0.10	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.7	28.2	15.7	24.2	2.7	25.2	124.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +52.9%

HOU +8.2%

MEM -8.2%

MEM -0.2%

MEM -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MEM	NBA	HOU	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	16.2	15.4	108.9	98.9	104.5
season	15.6	15.1		103.6	105.1
opponent	15.1	15.7		110.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.8	16.4	15.2	17.3	15.6
MEM	15.0	17.9	15.4	17.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	52	53	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.16	20	-12	32	15.3	16.1	-0.84	16.7	15.6	1.11
Dikembe Mutombo	70	68	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	0	8	16.1	14.1	1.96	16.9	14.1	2.82
Tracy McGrady	73	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	4	0	15.5	16.2	-0.76	16.0	17.2	-1.20
Shane Battier	73	74	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	7	-6	16.0	13.9	2.15	15.5	19.2	-3.66
Charles Hayes	42	44	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	4	0	14.2	16.9	-2.64	15.6	16.7	-1.09
Rafer Alston	70	70	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	4	0	15.0	17.8	-2.86	15.6	18.0	-2.40
Juwan Howard	62	62	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	10	-12	16.6	13.5	3.03	16.5	15.5	1.00
John Lucas III	8	9	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	7	-6	17.4	15.5	1.92	20.3	15.7	4.59

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	46	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-11	14	16.5	15.8	0.70	15.0	16.3	-1.29
Stromile Swift	15	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-8	8	10.7	17.3	-6.62	16.1	15.5	0.61
Alexander Johnson	18	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-9	10	17.1	16.0	1.07	18.5	14.8	3.68
Hakim Warrick	20	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-4	0	14.0	16.8	-2.75	15.3	15.7	-0.36
Will Conroy	5	6	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	-3	-2	18.0	16.1	1.91	15.7	15.6	0.05
Rudy Gay	34	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.07	-2	-6	4	17.5	15.4	2.03	15.0	16.0	-0.95
Lawrence Roberts	51	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	0	-8	17.5	14.5	2.94	14.2	17.3	-3.07
Mike Miller	74	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-6	4	15.9	17.3	-1.35	15.6	15.6	0.01
Pau Gasol	78	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	16.8	12.8	4.00	15.8	14.6	1.12
Chucky Atkins	47	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	1	-10	15.7	16.7	-1.03	16.0	15.1	0.90
Dahntay Jones	67	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	1	-10	15.8	17.3	-1.49	16.1	14.5	1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, SEA 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0	94.4%
CHI 99, BKN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	94.2%
CHH 93, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.8%