NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	93		Excitement	5.9 [620]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (CHH): +10.7%
Golden State Warriors	85		Comeback	1.1 [895]		LVP	Bob Sura (GSW): -26.9%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.00	18	67%	0.16	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
P.J. Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	65%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Elden Campbell	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Lee Nailon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	71%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Eddie Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.07	14	35%	-0.02	3	-0.06	6	67%	0.02
David Wesley	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	18	32%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	26	56%	0.10	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Adam Keefe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	14	45%	-0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.03	-0.04	20	41%	-0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	16	39%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.21	-0.10	-0.03	10	17%	-0.16	3	-0.11	4	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.2	28.7	16.7	25.3	2.5	34.7	132.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +31.6%

CHH +10.5%

CHH +2.5%

CHH +5.7%

GSW -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	GSW	NBA	CHH	GSW	NBA
this game	15.2	14.3	15.5	94.9	87.6	100.9
season	15.8	15.0		99.7	95.3
opponent	14.9	15.6		104.8	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	14.4	13.9	16.2	16.4	15.2
GSW	13.3	15.5	14.4	14.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	89	88	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	-2	12	15.1	15.8	-0.63	14.0	17.1	-3.07
Jamal Mashburn	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	2	4	15.7	12.7	2.93	13.7	17.6	-3.87
David Wesley	79	79	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.20	7	1	6	15.8	12.6	3.26	14.2	14.9	-0.75
Jamaal Magloire	37	35	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-3	14	14.5	15.6	-1.07	14.5	14.2	0.24
P.J. Brown	72	72	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	4	0	15.6	14.2	1.43	14.1	15.0	-0.96
Otis Thorpe	26	25	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	4	0	14.2	15.6	-1.43	15.0	14.1	0.96
Elden Campbell	58	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.23	-3	11	-14	16.1	13.9	2.25	14.4	14.1	0.31
Lee Nailon	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	6	-4	12.7	15.7	-2.93	17.6	13.7	3.87
Eddie Robinson	28	27	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	9	-10	13.6	15.8	-2.24	15.7	13.8	1.85
Hersey Hawkins	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	5.7	15.5	-9.84	8.0	14.5	-6.46

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	79	79	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-9	10	13.5	17.8	-4.23	16.1	11.5	4.56
Adonal Foyle	54	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-8	8	15.1	13.4	1.72	15.9	14.4	1.48
Adam Keefe	13	14	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	0	-8	17.5	13.8	3.71	10.4	16.0	-5.57
Vonteego Cummings	15	17	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-2	-4	16.3	14.0	2.29	9.6	16.4	-6.79
Antawn Jamison	94	95	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	14.2	19.7	-5.51	15.6	2.7	12.93
Mookie Blaylock	87	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-5	2	14.0	16.9	-2.87	15.5	12.5	2.99
Marc Jackson	67	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	1	-10	14.5	13.9	0.62	15.3	15.1	0.16
Bob Sura	76	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.18	-10	2	-12	14.1	15.3	-1.28	15.0	15.9	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, GSW 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.3,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.9%
HOU 98, MEM 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
MIN 108, WAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0	93.6%