NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	7.3 [384]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +29.0%
Chicago Bulls	100		Comeback	1.2 [901]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -21.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	13	65%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	13	57%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.03	0.03	13	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	11	39%	-0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	24	41%	-0.17	2	-0.05	11	73%	-0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.21	0.12	0.04	17	72%	0.31	1	-0.02	13	77%	-0.05
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.06	-0.02	6	29%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.01	21	53%	0.13	4	-0.16	7	71%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	15	51%	0.08	4	-0.14	7	71%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	3	8%	-0.10	1	-0.01	6	17%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	35.2	16.5	27.5	2.4	37.4	145.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +39.1%

CHI +13.7%

CHI +12.0%

MIA -19.7%

CHI +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.9	13.6	15.4	103.2	105.3	104.5
season	16.0	14.5		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	16.3	18.7	14.6	16.9
CHI	12.8	15.0	13.2	13.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	52	53	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.27	16	-19	35	16.2	17.6	-1.35	15.2	11.7	3.54
Chris Quinn	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-8	13	19.6	16.6	3.03	13.4	13.7	-0.29
Antoine Walker	53	54	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.56	16	-19	35	16.2	17.7	-1.52	14.4	12.6	1.77
Jason Williams	54	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-2	1	17.3	16.3	1.00	14.2	12.9	1.34
Dorell Wright	21	22	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	2	-7	18.6	16.4	2.22	12.7	13.9	-1.25
James Posey	62	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.40	4	-7	11	16.7	17.2	-0.46	13.3	14.2	-0.87
Jason Kapono	62	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	0	-3	16.0	18.4	-2.41	14.1	12.8	1.25
Michael Doleac	15	15	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.16	-21	18	-39	19.9	16.3	3.59	10.4	14.2	-3.85
Dwyane Wade	84	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	8	-19	16.6	19.2	-2.63	13.3	16.2	-2.98
Udonis Haslem	59	60	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	12	-27	17.3	16.2	1.08	12.6	15.4	-2.74

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	74	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-9	21	12.9	16.3	-3.45	16.9	16.7	0.14
Kirk Hinrich	90	88	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-3	9	13.4	17.8	-4.39	16.7	19.5	-2.83
Luol Deng	88	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.35	6	-3	9	13.4	16.6	-3.16	16.8	17.3	-0.47
P.J. Brown	38	38	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	-2	7	15.2	12.6	2.53	16.7	16.9	-0.19
Michael Sweetney	7	6	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	-4	11	11.4	13.8	-2.39	19.7	16.7	3.01
Andres Nocioni	66	65	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.50	-10	13	-23	13.7	13.6	0.08	16.4	17.8	-1.36
Ben Wallace	76	76	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.04	7	-4	11	13.6	14.0	-0.45	17.5	14.1	3.39
Tyrus Thomas	7	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	6	-9	16.6	13.4	3.16	17.3	16.8	0.47
Chris Duhon	18	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.14	-6	9	-15	14.4	13.5	0.99	13.8	17.6	-3.73
Thabo Sefolosha	11	10	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.15	-9	12	-21	16.0	13.3	2.67	20.2	16.5	3.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.73,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.86,0.74,0.79,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.71,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.96,1	91.2%
BOS 96, ATL 100	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.68,0.53,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.85,1	91.2%
NJN 84, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.83,1	91.2%