NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	5.5 [749]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +23.0%
Indiana Pacers	98		Comeback	1.1 [809]		LVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): -10.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.23	0.19	0.06	0.02	18	72%	0.28	4	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	8	74%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Malik Allen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	45%	0.01	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	9	35%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Luol Deng	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	15	53%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	9	73%	0.15	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	75%	0.10	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.02	10	64%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	13	50%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	9	35%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	0	25%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	22	43%	-0.02	4	-0.06	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	31.6	15.4	30.5	2.5	34.4	143.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +15.9%

CHI -2.0%

IND +24.4%

IND +8.3%

IND +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	14.2	15.6	15.4	94.8	101.0	104.5
season	14.5	15.3		103.1	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.9	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	14.6	14.5	13.4	14.2
IND	14.5	12.5	18.2	17.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	20	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-6	5	11.7	14.9	-3.21	15.0	15.7	-0.73
Malik Allen	36	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.29	9	-16	25	13.6	14.6	-1.09	17.0	14.8	2.15
Ben Wallace	43	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-6	5	14.3	14.2	0.11	15.9	15.3	0.57
Thabo Sefolosha	68	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-13	19	13.9	15.0	-1.07	16.0	14.8	1.20
Kirk Hinrich	56	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	1	-9	15.3	12.8	2.47	15.2	16.1	-0.89
Luol Deng	81	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	14.4	13.2	1.23	15.7	15.3	0.36
Andres Nocioni	60	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.25	-6	-1	-5	14.1	14.4	-0.33	15.2	16.2	-0.96
P.J. Brown	40	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.04	-16	9	-25	15.8	13.1	2.67	14.9	16.1	-1.16
Ben Gordon	76	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.16	-14	7	-21	13.8	15.9	-2.16	15.5	16.1	-0.63

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	80	80	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-8	23	16.0	13.6	2.44	14.7	11.7	3.06
Mike Dunleavy	85	82	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.20	14	-7	21	15.4	16.9	-1.50	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Darrell Armstrong	66	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-1	9	16.3	14.1	2.21	14.7	13.1	1.63
Troy Murphy	66	63	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-6	19	16.6	13.5	3.11	15.5	11.9	3.55
Danny Granger	65	63	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	-2	11	15.5	15.7	-0.18	14.4	13.9	0.46
Marquis Daniels	54	54	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.22	-6	13	-19	15.5	15.7	-0.22	13.5	15.2	-1.73
Ike Diogu	13	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	8	-9	13.2	16.0	-2.82	11.3	14.7	-3.46
Orien Greene	14	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	9	-11	14.8	15.7	-0.95	13.2	14.4	-1.26
Shawne Williams	14	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	9	-11	12.9	16.0	-3.12	11.7	14.7	-2.99
Jeff Foster	28	28	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.21	-13	20	-33	14.1	16.2	-2.05	13.7	14.4	-0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.74,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.97,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 75, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.96,1,1,1	95.3%
POR 86, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 89, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.89,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.94,1,1	93.9%